

125 

FNUS54 KMRX 202003

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

303 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014



...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

NIGHT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA AND THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS...

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 

TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA AND NORTHEAST TN...



.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... 

BRINGING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AND MOUNTAINS 

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL 

ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.  THESE WINDS WILL CARRY IN ANOTHER BLAST OF 

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-212115-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

303 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      25-30 (+2)   28-33 (-18)  4-9          17-22        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+14)  58-63 (+19)  72-77        36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  8 G17                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW 13 G23    NW 12 G22    SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           100          30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            6            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          11 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   4 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.12         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4900                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 21                     SW 10        

DISPERSION                         53 GEN GOOD               24 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 6 TO 16. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS

15 TO 28. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS ZERO TO 9 ABOVE.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. NOT AS COOL.

LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST

WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS

AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-212115-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

303 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      24-29 (+6)   28-33 (-17)  3-8          17-22        

RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (+20)  58-63 (+21)  73-78        28-33        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  9 G20                  NW  7 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW 14 G25    NW 14 G26    LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           100          50           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            6            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          11 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.15         0.04         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5200                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 25                      W 10         

DISPERSION                         53 GEN GOOD               22 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 4 TO 18. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS

15 TO 28. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS 1 TO 9. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. NOT AS COOL.

LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS

AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO

LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-212115-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

303 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      25-30 (+6)   30-35 (-17)  6-11         23-28        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+24) 53-58 (+17)  70-75        18-23        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 12 G23                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        NW 15 G27    NW 12 G24    W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           90           50           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            6            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.21         0.03         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 29                      W 12         

DISPERSION                         58 GEN GOOD               19 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 11 TO 19. SOUTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF FLURRIES. HIGHS IN THE MID

TEENS TO LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS 3 TO 11. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. NOT AS COOL.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS

AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-212115-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

303 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      27-32 (+8)   33-38 (-19)  9-14         28-33        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+19)  53-58 (+19)  67-72        16-21        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 10 G23                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        NW 15 G25    N 12 G21     LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           60           10           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.09         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5300                      4500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 29                     W 12         

DISPERSION                         80 GOOD                   23 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 13 TO 20. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 8 TO 16. NORTH WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. NOT AS COOL.

LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-212115-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

303 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      27-32 (+13)  35-40 (-17)  9-14         29-34        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (+16)  50-55 (+18)  67-72        14-19        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 10 G23                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW 14 G24    NW 12 G23    W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           50           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            2                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.08         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5500                      4700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 31                     W 12         

DISPERSION                         86 GOOD                   23 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          4                         3            



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 14 TO 20. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 8 TO 16. NORTH WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-212115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

303 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      26-31 (+6)   30-35 (-19)  6-11         22-27        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (+18)  58-63 (+21)  71-76        26-31        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  8 G19                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW 13 G21    NW 11 G19    LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           90           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            6            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          11 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 AM                     

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.14         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5000                      4700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 24                     SW  8        

DISPERSION                         75 GOOD                   23 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 11 TO 19. SOUTH WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS

IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS 3 TO 10. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. NOT AS COOL.

LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS

AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

20S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-212115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

303 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      28-33 (+4)   30-35 (-20)  9-14         25-30        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+15)  59-64 (+21)  72-77        24-29        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  9 G21                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW 13 G23    N 10 G20     LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           70           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            2                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.08         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5000                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 28                     SW 10        

DISPERSION                         88 GOOD                   26 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 11 TO 20. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS 5 TO 14. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-212115-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

303 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014 /203 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014/



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      29-34 (+1)   32-37 (-21)  11-16        28-33        

RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (+13)  56-61 (+21)  68-73        22-27        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 11 G23                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW 14 G24    N 11 G21     SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SNOW/RAIN    NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            50           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                    1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN                       CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END                         7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.02         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4900                      3900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 31                     SW 10        

DISPERSION                         101 VERY GOOD             24 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 23. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE

AFTERNOON. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS 8 TO 16. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$













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