

178 

FNUS54 KMRX 161947

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

245 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION 

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING 

AHEAD AND BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE 

REGION AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT ONLY LIGHT 

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 

BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-172045-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

245 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      23-28 (+10)  34-39 (+1)   12-17        32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      80-85 (-4)   40-45 (-2)   67-72        31-36        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 10 G20                 W 10 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 10 G22    W 10 G22     W  9 G17     SW 10 G19    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           60           40           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.07         0.04         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4900                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 26                     W 21         

DISPERSION                         65 GOOD                   35 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 20S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S 

TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. 

LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 

AROUND 17. HIGHS NEAR 30. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-172045-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

245 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      21-26 (+9)   33-38 (0)    12-17        31-36        

RH % (24H TREND)      82-87 (-2)   41-46 (+3)   66-71        32-37        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 11 G22                 W 13 G24     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G20    W 12 G22     W 11 G21     W 10 G21     

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           50           30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.05         0.04         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 26                      W 25         

DISPERSION                         35 FAIR                   27 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 20 TO 25. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S 

TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 

COLDER. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST 

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 

AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 

MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 

AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-172045-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

245 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      22-27 (+11)  32-37 (-2)   12-17        30-35        

RH % (24H TREND)      72-77 (-3)   39-44 (+5)   64-69        33-38        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 12 G26                 W 11 G21     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 13 G30    W 13 G25     W 10 G20     SW 11 G22    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           40           30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.05         0.04         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4900                      4200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 28                     W 23         

DISPERSION                         43 GEN GOOD               20 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 18 TO 

28. WEST WINDS 5 TO 25 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 

30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 26. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 

NOT AS COOL. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 

15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE TEENS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN 

THE TEENS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN 

THE TEENS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH.



$$



TNZ087-102-172045-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

245 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      24-29 (+12)  35-40 (-3)   13-18        33-38        

RH % (24H TREND)      71-76 (-5)   38-43 (+5)   66-71        32-37        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  9 G21                 W  8 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 11 G23     W 13 G23     W  9 G18     SW 10 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.03         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4600                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 24                      W 18         

DISPERSION                         53 GEN GOOD               26 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 

20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST 

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 

MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS NEAR 40. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 

AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 

30S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-172045-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

245 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      23-28 (+10)  35-40 (-2)   12-17        33-38        

RH % (24H TREND)      72-77 (-5)   39-44 (+6)   67-72        32-37        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  8 G21                 W 10 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G17    W 13 G24     W 10 G18     W  9         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           40           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.03         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4800                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 25                      W 21         

DISPERSION                         55 GEN GOOD               30 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          3                         3            



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER TO MID 20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST 

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN 

THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 

30S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-172045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

245 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      23-28 (+8)   36-41 (0)    13-18        34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      82-87 (+3)   38-43 (0)    64-69        32-37        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  9 G20                 W 11 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7 G18    W 13 G23     W  9 G17     SW 10 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           50           30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.05         0.03         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 26                     W 20         

DISPERSION                         68 GOOD                   42 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 20S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S 

TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 

AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 

MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-172045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

245 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      25-30 (+10)  36-41 (-1)   14-19        34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      73-78 (-7)   36-41 (-2)   64-69        31-36        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  9 G19                 W  9         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 10 G20    W 11 G20     W  8 G16     SW 11 G22    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           40           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.05         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4700                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 24                     W 18         

DISPERSION                         73 GOOD                   36 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 20S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST 

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 

TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 

AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 

30S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-172045-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

245 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014 /145 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014/



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      25-30 (+11)  37-42 (-3)   15-20        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      71-76 (-4)   34-39 (0)    64-69        30-35        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  8 G19                 W  8         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 10 G19    W 12 G21     W  8 G16     SW 10 G21    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.02         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 24                      W 18         

DISPERSION                         67 GOOD                   32 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

LOWER TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S. 

NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$







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