

438 

FNUS54 KMRX 151957

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014



.DISCUSSION...

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT... 

BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT 

WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR 

SNOW AND RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE 

WEEKEND.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-162045-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      15-20 (-12)  34-39 (-2)   22-27        33-38        

RH % (24H TREND)      75-80 (-19)  34-39 (-15)  76-81        39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5 G15                 SW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  5 G15    SW  9 G17    SW  8 G18    SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW         SNOW         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     10           0            30           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM                     CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.04         0.12         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 15                     SW 15        

DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   27 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 12 TO 17. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 

MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 18 TO 

23. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. NOT AS COOL. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 

50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS NEAR 30. 

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-162045-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      14-19 (-12)  34-39 (-2)   21-26        32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      74-79 (-18)  33-38 (-15)  75-80        39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      W  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7 G17    SW  7 G15    SW  6 G18    W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW         SNOW         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           0            30           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      10 PM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM                     CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.03         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      3900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 14                      W 15         

DISPERSION                         14 GEN POOR               15 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 12 TO 17. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 18 TO 

23. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE 

UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-162045-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      15-20 (-10)  35-40 (0)    22-27        32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      71-76 (-19)  31-36 (-14)  71-76        36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  6 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     N  7 G17     SW  8 G16    SW 10 G24    SW  9 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW         SNOW         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           0            30           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      10 PM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM                     CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.03         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4100                      4500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 13                      SW 16        

DISPERSION                         11 POOR                   20 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 9 TO 17. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. 

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 

AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 18 TO 

25. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST 

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE 

LOWER 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-162045-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      17-22 (-12)  38-43 (-1)   23-28        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      69-74 (-20)  30-35 (-12)  72-77        35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     N  8 G16     SW  8        S  9 G20     SW 11 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      10 PM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM                     CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.03         0.06         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      4500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      SW 15        

DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               31 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 13 TO 18. 

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WEST 

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN 

THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-162045-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      16-21 (-11)  38-43 (+1)   22-27        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      71-76 (-22)  30-35 (-15)  75-80        35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     N  8 G16     SW  6        SW  7 G16    SW 10 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW         SNOW         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      10 PM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM                     CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.03         0.05         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      4500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      SW 15        

DISPERSION                         17 GEN POOR               29 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          3                         3            



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 12 TO

17. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 

TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN 

THE LOWER TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-162045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      16-21 (-13)  37-42 (-2)   23-28        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      74-79 (-19)  32-37 (-14)  75-80        37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  5        SW  8 G16    SW  5 G15    SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW         SNOW         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            30           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM                     CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.03         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3600                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 13                     SW 14        

DISPERSION                         23 FAIR                   24 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 13 TO 18. 

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 

MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 

20 TO 25. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 

30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN 

THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-162045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      17-22 (-14)  38-43 (-1)   23-28        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      74-79 (-14)  31-36 (-11)  75-80        36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6 G16                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  5        SW 10 G18    SW  9 G17    SW  9 G19    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            40           40           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.04         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 14                     SW 14        

DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   30 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 13 TO 18. 

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 

IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S. 

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-162045-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014 /200 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014/



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      19-24 (-13)  40-45 (-1)   25-30        37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      67-72 (-14)  30-35 (-6)   71-76        35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7 G17    SW 10 G17    SW  9 G16    SW 12 G23    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            40           30           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.05         0.05         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3100                      3900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 13                     SW 15        

DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   35 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 

15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 5 

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. 

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID TO 

UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$







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