

830 

FNUS54 KMRX 131936

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

236 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014



.DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 

APPALACHIAN REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT...AND 

ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN 

GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE 

BRIEF AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION 

ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT 

AS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW.  



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-142045-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

236 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (+4)   48-53 (+2)   27-32        30-35        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (0)    39-44 (-18)  83-88        51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  7 G16                  W  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G18     SW 10 G19    SW  5        W  7         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          0            60           60           

PRECIP DURATION       8                         2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      10 PM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            7 AM                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.18         0.00         0.07         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4900                      6000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 21                      W 18         

DISPERSION                         49 GEN GOOD               62 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

13 TO 20. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID

20S TO UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 20S TO MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO

UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT AS COOL.

LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-142045-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

236 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      33-38 (+6)   49-54 (+6)   26-31        29-34        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+4)   35-40 (-16)  82-87        51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  9 G19                  W  9 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G22     W 10 G20     W  5         W  9 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          20           60           60           

PRECIP DURATION       8            1            2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   10 PM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   10 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.15         0.01         0.08         0.12         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5100                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 23                      W 21         

DISPERSION                         46 GEN GOOD               48 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

12 TO 19. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 20S

TO 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO

30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

20S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-142045-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

236 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (+7)   46-51 (+4)   25-30        28-33        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+9)   28-33 (-20)  87-92        46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  8 G19                  W  8 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 14 G33     W 11 G20     SW  7 G20    W  9         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          0            60           60           

PRECIP DURATION       8                         2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      10 PM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.20         0.00         0.08         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5200                      6200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 21                      W 17         

DISPERSION                         38 FAIR                   45 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

9 TO 19. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO

UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S

TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-142045-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

236 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (+10)  49-54 (+4)   28-33        32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (-7)   30-35 (-28)  86-91        42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      W  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 12 G26     SW 10 G17    LGT/VAR      W  8         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          0            50           30           

PRECIP DURATION       8                         1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      10 PM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            7 AM                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.22         0.00         0.05         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4800                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 17                      NW 15        

DISPERSION                         39 FAIR                   47 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 12 TO 20. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-142045-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

236 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (+13)  48-53 (+2)   29-34        33-38        

RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (-10)  26-31 (-26)  90-95        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  6 G15                 W  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  9 G20     W  9 G16     LGT/VAR      W  8         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          0            50           30           

PRECIP DURATION       8                         1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      10 PM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            7 AM                      CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.22         0.00         0.07         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5100                      5800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 18                      NW 17        

DISPERSION                         47 GEN GOOD               54 GEN GOOD  

MAX LVORI                          3                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 13 TO 19. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO

UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-142045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

236 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (+8)   50-55 (+4)   28-33        32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-1)  38-43 (-22)  80-85        48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  7 G15                  W  8 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6 G15     SW 10 G18    LGT/VAR      W  8 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          0            60           60           

PRECIP DURATION       8                         2            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      10 PM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            7 AM                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.18         0.00         0.07         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4500                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 18                      W 16         

DISPERSION                         49 GEN GOOD               57 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 14 TO 19. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 20S

TO UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

20S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

30. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-142045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

236 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (+1)   51-56 (+7)   28-33        32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+6)   36-41 (-30)  80-85        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     W  8         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G18     SW 10 G19    W  6         W  7         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          0            60           50           

PRECIP DURATION       8                         2            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            7 AM                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.18         0.00         0.07         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      6200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 18                      W 16         

DISPERSION                         44 GEN GOOD               68 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 15 TO 20. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 20S TO UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

20S TO UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-142045-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

236 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014 /136 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014/



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (+1)   52-57 (+9)   29-34        34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+6)  36-41 (-35)  78-83        37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      NW  8 G17    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  9 G21     SW 10 G19    W  5         NW  9 G19    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           0            50           20           

PRECIP DURATION       8                         1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            7 AM                      CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.17         0.00         0.03         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 18                      W 16         

DISPERSION                         40 FAIR                   70 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 19. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$













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