

022 

FNUS54 KMRX 082015

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

315 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE 

VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS OF PAIN...WITH EMBEDDED RAIN SHOWERS 

WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL 

MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-092100-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

315 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (+9)   46-51 (+7)   32-37        40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+7)  79-84 (-2)   95-100       66-71        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         W  5         LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         FRZ RAIN     FRZ RAIN     

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          70           50           

PRECIP DURATION       8            8            3            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.70         0.17         0.03         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      3700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 28                     W 21         

DISPERSION                         31 FAIR                   30 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 24. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE

AFTERNOON. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

30S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOWS

IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-092100-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

315 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (+8)   47-52 (+6)   35-40        41-46        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+8)  75-80 (+2)   95-100       57-62        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5 G16                 NW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  9 G21     LGT/VAR      NW  5        NW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          80           60           

PRECIP DURATION       8            8            8            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.35         0.32         0.06         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 32                     NW 26        

DISPERSION                         17 GEN POOR               30 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOWS

IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-092100-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

315 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+7)   47-52 (0)    36-41        43-48        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  74-79 (+4)   95-100       58-63        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  7 G23                 N  7 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  9 G25     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      N  7 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          80           60           

PRECIP DURATION       8            8            8            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.64         0.39         0.10         0.02         

LAL                   2            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      4600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 33                     NW 20        

DISPERSION                         11 POOR                   25 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING

RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN

THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-092100-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

315 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+5)   48-53 (-3)   39-44        47-52        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  81-86 (+10)  95-100       53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6 G19     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      N  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          80           60           

PRECIP DURATION       8            8            8            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.91         0.37         0.12         0.02         

LAL                   2            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2700                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 26                     NW 18        

DISPERSION                         14 GEN POOR               31 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS

AROUND 50. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-092100-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

315 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+5)   49-54 (+4)   40-45        48-53        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  83-88 (-1)   95-100       53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  6 G17                  N  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      N  5         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          80           60           

PRECIP DURATION       8            8            8            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.68         0.45         0.13         0.05         

LAL                   2            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      4300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 31                     NW 23        

DISPERSION                         18 GEN POOR               41 GEN GOOD  

MAX LVORI                          6                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER

30S. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN

THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-092100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

315 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+8)   48-53 (+4)   35-40        42-47        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+15) 75-80 (+3)   95-100       65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          70           50           

PRECIP DURATION       8            8            3            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.57         0.22         0.05         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2600                      3900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     NW 17        

DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   35 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 28. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING

NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOWS

IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-092100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

315 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+8)   45-50 (+2)   33-38        41-46        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+8)  76-81 (-4)   95-100       62-67        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         FRZ RAIN     FRZ RAIN     

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           70           50           

PRECIP DURATION       8            5            3            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.97         0.14         0.06         0.02         

LAL                   2            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      3700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 21                     NW 15        

DISPERSION                         28 FAIR                   31 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING

RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOWS

IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-092100-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

315 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013 /215 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013/



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      42-47 (+6)   46-51 (+2)   35-40        43-48        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+7)  77-82 (-2)   95-100       55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  8 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6 G17     LGT/VAR      N  5         N  7         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          70           50           

PRECIP DURATION       8            8            3            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.16         0.16         0.09         0.02         

LAL                   2            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2300                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 20                     NW 17        

DISPERSION                         19 GEN POOR               34 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER

30S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN

THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$













