

293 

FNUS54 KMRX 052005

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

305 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013



.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE 

NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN 

APPALACHIAN REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST LATE THIS 

AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A BREAK IN 

THE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE BRIEF 

AS PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER 

VALLEY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-062115-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

305 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (-5)   60-65 (-6)   33-38        38-43        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+8)  55-60 (-14)  94-99        56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      N  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  9 G20    W  9 G20     N  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        FRZ RAIN     FRZ RAIN     

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           100          100          20           

PRECIP DURATION       8            8            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.44         0.51         0.38         0.01         

LAL                   2            2            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      2600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 43                     NW 13        

DISPERSION                         26 FAIR                   5 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING

RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-062115-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

305 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (-2)   64-69 (-2)   35-40        44-49        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+9)  66-71 (+1)   95-100       47-52        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G19                  NW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         SW 12 G23    SW 11 G23    N  5         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           90           100          30           

PRECIP DURATION       8            5            8            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.42         0.25         0.35         0.03         

LAL                   2            2            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3100                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 41                     NW 15        

DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   2 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN

THE 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-062115-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

305 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (-3)   62-67 (-3)   36-41        46-51        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  69-74 (0)    95-100       46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 10 G24                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G17     SW 15 G32    W 12 G32     NE  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           100          100          30           

PRECIP DURATION       8            5            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.78         0.63         0.56         0.05         

LAL                   2            2            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      3300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 48                     NW  8        

DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               2 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE 30S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 20S TO MID 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-062115-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

305 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (-1)   64-69 (-2)   38-43        47-52        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  77-82 (+5)   95-100       51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 10 G24                  N  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G16     S 12 G24     W  8 G19     N  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          100          40           

PRECIP DURATION       8            8            8            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.07         0.67         0.64         0.05         

LAL                   2            2            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      2600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 41                     N 12         

DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   5 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-062115-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

305 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (+1)   62-67 (-4)   41-46        49-54        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   81-86 (+8)   95-100       56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 10 G21                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         S 12 G21     SW  8 G18    N  5         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          100          40           

PRECIP DURATION       8            5            8            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.14         0.55         0.54         0.05         

LAL                   2            2            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2900                      2700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 40                     NW 10        

DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   4 VERY POOR  

MAX LVORI                          5                         5            



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. EAST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-062115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

305 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (-3)   67-72 (-2)   35-40        45-50        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+9)  54-59 (-11)  93-98        48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     NW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  9 G18    W  9 G18     N  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        FRZ RAIN     FRZ RAIN     

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           100          100          20           

PRECIP DURATION       8            5            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.50         0.51         0.42         0.01         

LAL                   2            2            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2500                      2300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 38                     N  9         

DISPERSION                         34 FAIR                   6 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE

LOWER TO MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS NEAR 40. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-062115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

305 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (-7)   62-67 (-5)   33-38        40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+2)  49-54 (-22)  90-95        50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      N  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        W  9 G17     NW  9 G17    N  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        FRZ RAIN     FRZ RAIN     

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           100          90           20           

PRECIP DURATION       8            8            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.90         0.96         0.47         0.01         

LAL                   2            2            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2600                      2400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 41                     N 13         

DISPERSION                         48 GEN GOOD               13 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

20S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-062115-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

305 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013 /205 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013/



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (-6)   67-72 (-1)   34-39        43-48        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   51-56 (-20)  90-95        53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  9 G21                 N  9 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7        SW 11 G22    NW  9 G17    N  8 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          90           10           

PRECIP DURATION       8            8            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.19         0.79         0.51         0.01         

LAL                   2            2            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2500                      2300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 40                     N 16         

DISPERSION                         45 GEN GOOD               15 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE 30S TO

LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$













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