

204 

FNUS54 KMRX 041926

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

226 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013



.DISCUSSION...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED 

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING 

THROUGH FRIDAY. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR 

SATURDAY...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE BRIEF AS PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN 

SETTLES IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-052030-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

226 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (+5)   65-70 (+3)   50-55        55-60        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (+2)   62-67 (+6)   95-100       77-82        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  6 G15                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         SW  7 G15    S  7         SW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           70           90           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            2            8            

PRECIP BEGIN                       7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.10         0.47         0.47         

LAL                   1            2            2            2            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3100                      2200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 29                     SW 40        

DISPERSION                         27 FAIR                   5 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S. EAST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 18.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-052030-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

226 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (+8)   63-68 (+3)   50-55        57-62        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  65-70 (+11)  95-100       71-76        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7 G15     SW  5        S  7         SW  9 G19    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           80           90           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            5            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            1 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.06         0.27         0.22         

LAL                   1            2            2            2            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      2800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     SW 40        

DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   1 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO

LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 18.

HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-052030-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

226 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (+7)   62-67 (+4)   51-56        56-61        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  68-73 (-2)   95-100       75-80        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  7 G18                 SW  8 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G22     SW  9 G18    S  8 G16     SW 11 G22    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           50           80           100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            5            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.16         0.46         0.36         

LAL                   1            2            2            2            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 29                     SW 46        

DISPERSION                         17 GEN POOR               2 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO

LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER

40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

RAIN. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-052030-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

226 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (+8)   66-71 (+4)   53-58        58-63        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   67-72 (-3)   95-100       81-86        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G16     S  7         S  7         SW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           60           100          100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            5            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.10         0.19         0.43         0.40         

LAL                   1            2            2            2            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3100                      2300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 26                     SW 41        

DISPERSION                         23 FAIR                   5 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER

50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN

THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-052030-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

226 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (+6)   67-72 (+6)   55-60        61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  62-67 (-8)   95-100       83-88        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         SW  5        S  6         SW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           60           100          100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            3            5            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.21         0.39         0.31         

LAL                   1            2            2            2            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      2600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 24                     SW 39        

DISPERSION                         25 FAIR                   10 POOR      

MAX LVORI                          5                         7            



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID

50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER

MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN

THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-052030-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

226 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (+7)   67-72 (+2)   51-56        58-63        

RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (-6)   62-67 (+5)   95-100       72-77        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         SW  6        S  5         SW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           70           90           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            2            8            

PRECIP BEGIN                       7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.10         0.45         0.39         

LAL                   1            2            2            2            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      1800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 25                     SW 38        

DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   10 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S. NORTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO

LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS

AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-052030-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

226 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (+8)   68-73 (+5)   49-54        53-58        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   68-73 (+2)   95-100       75-80        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7         SW  6        SW  6        SW  9 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           50           90           100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            5            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.20         0.66         0.63         

LAL                   1            2            2            2            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2900                      1600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 29                     SW 36        

DISPERSION                         40 FAIR                   10 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER

40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO

LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN

THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-052030-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

226 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013 /126 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (+9)   68-73 (+5)   51-56        54-59        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   68-73 (-4)   95-100       82-87        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8         S  7         S  6         SW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           60           100          100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            8            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.19         0.55         0.55         

LAL                   1            2            2            2            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      1500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 28                     SW 39        

DISPERSION                         44 GEN GOOD               10 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH

WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. NORTHEAST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO

LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN

THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$













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