

170 

FNUS54 KMRX 040944

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

444 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013



.DISCUSSION...

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN 

APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE AREA.  A COLD 

FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEGIN 

A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

THIS WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING INTO THE 

WEEKEND.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-051045-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

444 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      60-65 (+6)   49-54 (+6)   64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      61-66 (-2)   95-100 (+6)  67-72        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   S  6 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         S  6         SW  7 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.02         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3400                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 21                     SW 25        

DISPERSION            25 FAIR                   26 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO

LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS

AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-051045-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

444 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (+7)   48-53 (+8)   62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      62-67 (-3)   95-100 (+3)  71-76        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S  6                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7         S  8 G15     SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.02         0.06         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3600                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 21                     SW 23        

DISPERSION            15 GEN POOR               14 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS NEAR 40. WEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER

50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-051045-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

444 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (+8)   50-55 (+7)   61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      67-72 (-8)   91-96 (+1)   71-76        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S  8 G19                  SW  7 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 10 G21    S 10 G22     SW  9 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.03         0.17         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3900                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 28                     SW 25        

DISPERSION            18 GEN POOR               15 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LESS THAN

10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO

LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT

CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-051045-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

444 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (+9)   54-59 (+9)   66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      70-75 (-4)   89-94 (-6)   69-74        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S  7 G16                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G17     S  8 G17     S  7         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.06         0.19         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3600                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 26                     SW 23        

DISPERSION            34 FAIR                   23 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER

50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN

THE 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-051045-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

444 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      60-65 (+7)   54-59 (+8)   67-72        

RH % (24H TREND)      70-75 (-9)   87-92 (-7)   69-74        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S  5                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8         S  7         SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.07         0.22         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3900                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 25                     SW 22        

DISPERSION            34 FAIR                   26 FAIR      

MAX LVORI             4                         5            



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID

50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN

THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-051045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

444 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (+5)   51-56 (+8)   66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      64-69 (+5)   95-100 (+4)  66-71        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         S  6         SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.02         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2900                      2900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 21                     SW 24        

DISPERSION            26 FAIR                   29 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER

50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-051045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

444 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      63-68 (+9)   53-58 (+8)   66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      67-72 (-5)   92-97 (-2)   69-74        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S  5                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8         S  7         SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            3 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.03         0.27         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3100                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 26                     SW 25        

DISPERSION            41 GEN GOOD               38 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER

50S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO

UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN

THE 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-051045-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

444 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013 /344 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013/



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (+12)  56-61 (+9)   68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      67-72 (-10)  91-96 (-5)   68-73        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S  6                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  9 G16     S  8         S  7         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            3 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.06         0.24         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3100                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 28                     SW 24        

DISPERSION            46 GEN GOOD               40 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER

50S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER

50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$













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