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FNUS54 KMRX 040327 AAA

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FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1027 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



.DISCUSSION...

AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE 

SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A COLD 

FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. A VERY WET PATTERN WILL DEVELOP 

OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY...AND WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT 

WEEK...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-050430-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

1027 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+6)   61-66 (+7)   50-55        64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (0)    58-63 (-5)   95-100       63-68        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  5                     SW 11 G21    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  9 G16     S 11 G22     SW 10 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            40           60           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.03         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      2900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     SW 31        

DISPERSION                         34 FAIR                   22 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR

50. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER

MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

30S TO MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-050430-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1027 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+4)   59-64 (+8)   49-54        62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+8)  58-63 (-7)   92-97        62-67        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  7 G15                  SW  9 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  9 G17     S 12 G24     SW  9 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           30           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.01         0.03         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     SW 26        

DISPERSION                         23 FAIR                   6 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER

40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 MPH

AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER

40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-050430-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

1027 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+6)   59-64 (+8)   50-55        62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  63-68 (-12)  89-94        60-65        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G19                  SW 12 G24    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         S 12 G23     S 15 G32     S 12 G27     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           40           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.01         0.03         0.14         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      3400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 25                     SW 31        

DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   8 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...BREEZY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...BREEZY...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO

LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH

AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER

40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-050430-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1027 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+6)   63-68 (+10)  52-57        64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  66-71 (-8)   95-100       65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  8 G16                  S 10 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 10 G19     S 13 G25     S 12 G22     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           40           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.01         0.04         0.16         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      2900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 26                     SW 28        

DISPERSION                         43 GEN GOOD               18 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

10 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS NEAR 40. WEST WINDS 5 TO

20 MPH BECOMING NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER

40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-050430-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

1027 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (+7)   62-67 (+9)   52-57        64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   67-72 (-12)  93-98        66-71        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  7 G15                  S  8 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  9 G17     S  9 G19     S 10 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           30           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.03         0.04         0.16         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 24                     SW 25        

DISPERSION                         35 FAIR                   17 GEN POOR  

MAX LVORI                          4                         5            



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS NEAR 40. WEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS

AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-050430-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

1027 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+6)   62-67 (+6)   51-56        66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  58-63 (-1)   95-100       61-66        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  5                     SW  8 G17    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  8         S  8 G18     SW  8 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            40           60           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.03         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                      2100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     SW 26        

DISPERSION                         34 FAIR                   15 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER

40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LESS THAN

10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER

40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30.

HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-050430-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

1027 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+5)   63-68 (+9)   53-58        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   60-65 (-12)  95-100       63-68        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  6 G15                  SW 10 G19    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 10 G18     S 12 G23     S 11 G21     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     10           0            40           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.04         0.19         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      2300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 28                     SW 30        

DISPERSION                         51 GEN GOOD               27 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER

40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-050430-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

1027 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013 /927 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+5)   65-70 (+12)  55-60        66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  64-69 (-13)  94-99        66-71        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  8 G16                  S  9 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 10 G17     S 13 G23     S 12 G20     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           40           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.02         0.04         0.17         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      2400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 29                      SW 29        

DISPERSION                         57 GEN GOOD               31 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

10 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER

40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH

AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S. EAST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 



$$













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