

752 

FNUS54 KMRX 031948

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

245 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...



.DISCUSSION...

AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE 

SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A COLD 

FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. A VERY WET PATTERN WILL DEVELOP 

OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY...AND WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT 

WEEK...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-042045-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

245 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      42-47 (+5)   61-66 (+7)   50-55        64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   58-63 (-5)   95-100       63-68        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  5                     SW 11 G21    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  9 G16     S 11 G22     SW 10 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            40           60           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.03         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      2900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     SW 31        

DISPERSION                         34 FAIR                   21 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 50. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 

WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER 

MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 

40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

30S TO MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-042045-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

245 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+4)   59-64 (+8)   49-54        62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+6)  58-63 (-7)   92-97        62-67        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  7 G15                  SW  9 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  9 G17     S 12 G24     SW  9 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           30           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.01         0.03         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     SW 26        

DISPERSION                         23 FAIR                   6 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 

WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER 

MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHEAST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. 

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST 

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-042045-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

245 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+6)   59-64 (+8)   50-55        62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (-2)   63-68 (-12)  89-94        60-65        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G19                  SW 12 G24    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         S 12 G23     S 15 G32     S 12 G27     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           40           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.01         0.03         0.14         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      3400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 25                     SW 31        

DISPERSION                         23 FAIR                   8 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...BREEZY. SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO 

LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...BECOMING NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH 

AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 

40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 

LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 20S. 

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-042045-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

245 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+6)   63-68 (+10)  52-57        64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  66-71 (-8)   95-100       65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  8 G16                  S 10 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 10 G19     S 13 G25     S 12 G22     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           40           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.01         0.04         0.16         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      2900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 26                     SW 28        

DISPERSION                         42 GEN GOOD               18 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

10 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS NEAR 40. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 

MPH...BECOMING NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHEAST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S

TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-042045-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

245 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (+7)   62-67 (+9)   52-57        64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-2)  67-72 (-12)  93-98        66-71        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  7 G15                  S  8 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  9 G17     S  9 G19     S 10 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           30           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.03         0.04         0.16         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 24                     SW 25        

DISPERSION                         35 FAIR                   17 GEN POOR  

MAX LVORI                          4                         6            



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS NEAR 40. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 

MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHEAST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST 

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS 

AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 

MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-042045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

245 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      41-46 (+4)   62-67 (+6)   51-56        66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (0)    58-63 (-1)   95-100       61-66        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  5                     SW  8 G17    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  8         S  8 G18     SW  8 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            40           60           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.03         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                      2100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     SW 26        

DISPERSION                         34 FAIR                   15 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH 

AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 40S. EAST WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. 

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-042045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

245 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+5)   63-68 (+9)   53-58        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-1)  60-65 (-12)  95-100       63-68        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  6 G15                  SW 10 G19    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 10 G18     S 12 G23     S 11 G21     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     10           0            40           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.04         0.19         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      2300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 28                     SW 30        

DISPERSION                         51 GEN GOOD               27 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-042045-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

245 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013 /145 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+5)   65-70 (+12)  55-60        66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  64-69 (-13)  94-99        66-71        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  8 G16                  S  9 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 10 G17     S 13 G23     S 12 G20     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           40           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.02         0.04         0.17         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      2400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 29                      SW 29        

DISPERSION                         57 GEN GOOD               31 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

10 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER 

MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S. EAST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST 

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$







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