

723 

FNUS54 KMRX 211917

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

217 PM EST THU NOV 21 2013



.DISCUSSION...

INCREASING CLOUDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED 

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO

MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS 

WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE 

FRONT EXITS THE REGION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO WELL BELOW 

SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY...AND INTO THE WORK WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-222030-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

217 PM EST THU NOV 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (+14)  59-64 (+4)   39-44        44-49        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (+7)   65-70 (+14)  95-100       54-59        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     N  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  8        NW  7 G16    NW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            50           90           60           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            8            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                       7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.19         0.34         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 16                     NW 15        

DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   36 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 25. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 16 TO 22. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT

CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-222030-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

217 PM EST THU NOV 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      44-49 (+14)  58-63 (+7)   43-48        47-52        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+4)   58-63 (0)    95-100       55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     N  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         W  7         W  8 G16     NW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     10           40           80           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            8            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 PM        1 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.04         0.29         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 13                      NW 16        

DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   36 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 19 TO 26. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 18. NORTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE

OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-222030-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

217 PM EST THU NOV 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+12)  58-63 (+5)   43-48        48-53        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  59-64 (-1)   95-100       48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     N  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         W  8 G16     W  7 G15     N  7         

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           40           80           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            8            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 PM        1 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.04         0.44         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 14                     NW 13        

DISPERSION                         13 GEN POOR               25 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH WINDS

5 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 16 TO 22. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE

OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO

MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-222030-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

217 PM EST THU NOV 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (+10)  60-65 (+5)   46-51        50-55        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+6)   65-70 (+2)   95-100       45-50        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  5                      N  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5        SW  5        LGT/VAR      N 10 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           40           80           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            8            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 PM        1 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.04         0.40         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      4300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 13                     N 17         

DISPERSION                         18 GEN POOR               32 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE

OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID

40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-222030-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

217 PM EST THU NOV 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+10)  60-65 (+5)   49-54        52-57        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+2)   63-68 (-3)   95-100       44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  5        LGT/VAR      N  9 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           40           80           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            8            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 PM        1 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.04         0.30         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      4600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     N 16         

DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               33 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          4                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S

TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE

OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS NEAR 40. NORTH WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-222030-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

217 PM EST THU NOV 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+13)  61-66 (+5)   43-48        48-53        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+9)   61-66 (+11)  95-100       52-57        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  7        W  7 G15     NW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            40           80           60           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            8            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                       7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.09         0.39         0.06         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3600                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 14                     NW 14        

DISPERSION                         25 FAIR                   39 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 19 TO 26. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 16 TO 21. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING

EAST LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE

OF SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 40. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS

IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-222030-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

217 PM EST THU NOV 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+13)  62-67 (+5)   42-47        48-53        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+9)   62-67 (+15)  95-100       46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     N  8 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  7        NW  6 G15    N  8 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     10           60           90           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            8            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.13         0.40         0.05         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 15                     N 15         

DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   37 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 17 TO 25. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING

EAST LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS

IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-222030-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

217 PM EST THU NOV 21 2013 /117 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013/



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+7)   61-66 (+4)   43-48        48-53        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (+18)  65-70 (+10)  95-100       49-54        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  5                      N  9         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         SW  5        NW  5        N 10 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           60           90           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            8            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.07         0.37         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 14                     N 21         

DISPERSION                         23 FAIR                   37 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 25. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S.

NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$













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