

916 

FNUS54 KMRX 291842

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

240 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013



.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS 

OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND 

WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER 

VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AHEAD 

OF IT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED 

OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY 

BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-301945-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

240 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (+5)   67-72 (+3)   49-54        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (+3)   53-58 (-1)   88-93        57-62        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  7                     S  8 G20     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  7        LGT/VAR      S 13 G23     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           50           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          12 AM        CONTINUING                2 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   4 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.03         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3300                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 16                      S 25         

DISPERSION                         17 GEN POOR               71 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 

50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO 

LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 

40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER. HIGHS 

IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S 

TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 

TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 

TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-301945-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

240 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (+5)   65-70 (+2)   48-53        63-68        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (-1)   47-52 (-5)   87-92        56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  8 G16                  S  9 G22     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  8 G15     LGT/VAR      S 14 G24     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           30           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          4 AM         CONTINUING                5 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   4 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.01         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4100                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 18                      S 23         

DISPERSION                         20 GEN POOR               55 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO 

LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 

40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER. HIGHS 

IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 

TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-301945-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

240 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+4)   67-72 (+5)   48-53        63-68        

RH % (24H TREND)      78-83 (-4)   43-48 (-9)   86-91        57-62        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  8 G16                 S 12 G25     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  8         S  5         S 14 G28     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          4 AM                                   2 PM         

PRECIP END            8 AM                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4900                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 15                      S 28         

DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   49 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDY. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 

IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 

LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TO 10 MPH OR 

LESS IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 

40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 

60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO 

UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 

LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO 

MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-301945-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

240 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+5)   72-77 (+7)   51-56        66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      78-83 (-6)   41-46 (-10)  84-89        57-62        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     S 11 G23     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  6        S  5         S 14 G26     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION                                              1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 2 PM         

PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4800                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 13                     S 28         

DISPERSION                         28 FAIR                   68 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 

MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 

TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-301945-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

240 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (+5)   72-77 (+6)   49-54        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      79-84 (-5)   40-45 (-10)  86-91        57-62        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     S 10 G21     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  6        LGT/VAR      S 13 G23     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION                                              1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 2 PM         

PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4800                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      S 25         

DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   69 GOOD      

MAX LVORI                          3                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO 

LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 

TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-301945-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

240 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+5)   70-75 (+3)   50-55        66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+2)   45-50 (-3)   89-94        55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  7                     S  6 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  7        LGT/VAR      S 11 G21     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          12 AM        CONTINUING                2 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   4 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.01         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 16                      S 23         

DISPERSION                         31 FAIR                   69 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 

50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO 

LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. 

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER. HIGHS 

IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. EAST 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO 

LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-301945-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

240 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+3)   72-77 (+5)   52-57        67-72        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (-1)   43-48 (-8)   85-90        56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     S  9 G22     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  7        S  5         S 12 G23     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM                                   2 PM         

PRECIP END            8 AM                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.00         0.00         0.09         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4100                      4700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 15                     S 30         

DISPERSION                         37 FAIR                   89 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 

50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 

MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. 

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 

60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-301945-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

240 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013 /140 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+5)   74-79 (+7)   54-59        69-74        

RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (-5)   41-46 (-12)  78-83        56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     S 10 G20     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  7        S  5         S 13 G23     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            40           

PRECIP DURATION                                              1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 2 PM         

PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4600                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 14                     S 30         

DISPERSION                         40 FAIR                   93 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WEST 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 

60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 

TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 

60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$







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