

866 

FNUS54 KMRX 211844

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

244 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN 

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS 

NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL 

SYSTEM BUILDS TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. A MUCH STRONG COLD FRONT WILL 

MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING 

BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL 

OF LATE NOVEMBER RATHER THAN LATE OCTOBER





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-221945-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

244 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      41-46 (+8)   57-62 (-6)   38-43        46-51        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (-5)   49-54 (+14)  89-94        50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  8 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        SW  5        LGT/VAR      NW  8 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.03         0.02         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 15                     W 24         

DISPERSION                         28 FAIR                   68 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID

30S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 50S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

40S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-221945-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

244 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+7)   58-63 (-3)   38-43        45-50        

RH % (24H TREND)      83-88 (-9)   41-46 (+5)   86-91        46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      W 10 G23     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         LGT/VAR      NW 12 G24    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       11 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.03         0.03         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4600                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 17                      W 30         

DISPERSION                         26 FAIR                   74 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 30. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 50S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID

30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-221945-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

244 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      39-44 (+7)   58-63 (-3)   37-42        45-50        

RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (-8)   43-48 (+10)  86-91        39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  9 G20     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        W  6         SW  5        NW  8 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.01         0.02         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4600                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 18                     NW 24        

DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   55 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER

30S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-221945-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

244 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      41-46 (+7)   61-66 (-3)   37-42        50-55        

RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (-9)   42-47 (+10)  85-90        36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  7 G17    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         LGT/VAR      NW  7 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                                                           

PRECIP BEGIN                                                              

PRECIP END                                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 16                     NW 21        

DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   50 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 30. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. EAST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

50S TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-221945-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

244 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+7)   62-67 (-1)   36-41        49-54        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-5)   40-45 (+8)   89-94        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  8 G19    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         LGT/VAR      NW  9 G19    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                                                           

PRECIP BEGIN                                                              

PRECIP END                                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 16                     NW 25        

DISPERSION                         28 FAIR                   70 GOOD      

MAX LVORI                          4                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 30. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

40S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-221945-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

244 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      41-46 (+8)   61-66 (-3)   40-45        49-54        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (-6)   43-48 (+10)  88-93        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  8 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  5         LGT/VAR      W  9 G19     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.02         0.01         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      5100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 14                      W 23         

DISPERSION                         30 FAIR                   72 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID

30S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID

30S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN

THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-221945-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

244 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      42-47 (+8)   60-65 (-5)   40-45        49-54        

RH % (24H TREND)      83-88 (-11)  45-50 (+12)  84-89        39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  7 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  6        LGT/VAR      NW  6 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       CONTINUING   2 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         5 PM         CONTINUING   2 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.01         0.01         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     NW 21        

DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   62 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID

30S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING

BECOMING LIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID

30S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING

BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-221945-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

244 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 /144 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013/



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+8)   62-67 (-4)   40-45        51-56        

RH % (24H TREND)      79-84 (-14)  43-48 (+11)  79-84        37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  7 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         LGT/VAR      NW  7 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                                                           

PRECIP BEGIN                                                              

PRECIP END                                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      4700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 14                     NW 21        

DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   63 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$













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