

061 

FNUS54 KMRX 161921

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

321 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A 

STRONG COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS END BY THURSDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY 

DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-172030-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

321 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (-1)   61-66 (-4)   40-45        62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+10) 68-73 (+8)   95-100       38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           80           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            5            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.32         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 17                     W  7         

DISPERSION                         15 GEN POOR               20 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

40. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER. LOWS

AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-172030-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

321 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (+2)   60-65 (-3)   39-44        60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+12) 69-74 (+12)  95-100       39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           80           40           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            7            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.40         0.03         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 21                     W  8         

DISPERSION                         18 GEN POOR               16 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-172030-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

321 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (+3)   61-66 (-1)   38-43        59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  69-74 (+5)   95-100       34-39        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           90           40           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            7            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.16         0.40         0.03         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     NW  3        

DISPERSION                         20 GEN POOR               5 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-172030-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

321 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (+5)   64-69 (-2)   42-47        63-68        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  68-73 (+5)   93-98        35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           90           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       3            7            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.17         0.32         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3100                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 21                     NW  3        

DISPERSION                         18 GEN POOR               10 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-172030-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

321 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (+6)   65-70 (0)    41-46        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  69-74 (+6)   95-100       29-34        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           90           40           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            7            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.17         0.36         0.03         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                      5900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     NW  5        

DISPERSION                         20 GEN POOR               13 GEN POOR  

MAX LVORI                          5                         5            



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

40. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

40. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-172030-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

321 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (0)    63-68 (-4)   40-45        64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+8)  68-73 (+9)   95-100       36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           80           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            7            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.11         0.35         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2500                      4500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 18                     W  5         

DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               12 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

40. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER.

LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-172030-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

321 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (-1)   62-67 (-4)   40-45        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  66-71 (0)    95-100       34-39        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           80           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       3            4            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.21         0.22         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2300                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 14                      NW  3        

DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   12 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING

LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-172030-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

321 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013 /221 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (0)    63-68 (-4)   42-47        66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+10) 62-67 (-5)   91-96        35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  5        N  5         LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           90           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       4            3                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING                             

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.24         0.15         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2200                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 14                      N  3         

DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   11 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$













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