

245 

FNUS54 KMRX 161403

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1003 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY 

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER 

TEMPERATURES THEN STAYING COOL INTO THE WEEKEND.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-171515-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

1003 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (-5)   51-56 (-1)   62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      55-60 (+4)   95-100 (+10) 60-65        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           60           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.10         0.28         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5500                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 12                     SW 21        

DISPERSION            35 FAIR                   17 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-171515-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1003 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      63-68 (-5)   52-57 (+2)   62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      50-55 (+6)   95-100 (+12) 62-67        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           60           80           

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.08         0.34         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6000                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  8                      SW 21        

DISPERSION            22 FAIR                   8 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-171515-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

1003 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (-4)   53-58 (+3)   61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      55-60 (+5)   95-100 (+4)  65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           70           90           

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          11 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.14         0.35         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5700                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW  7                     SW 24        

DISPERSION            15 GEN POOR               9 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS

BECOMING WEST LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO

MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-171515-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1003 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      66-71 (-4)   56-61 (+5)   64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      58-63 (+5)   95-100 (+3)  65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           80           90           

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.16         0.33         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5000                      2700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW  6                     SW 20        

DISPERSION            13 GEN POOR               10 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-171515-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

1003 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (-5)   56-61 (+6)   65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      58-63 (+6)   95-100 (+4)  64-69        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           70           90           

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          11 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.14         0.36         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5600                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  6                      SW 21        

DISPERSION            16 GEN POOR               14 GEN POOR  

MAX LVORI             4                         6            



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID

60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-171515-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

1003 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      67-72 (-4)   52-57 (0)    64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      53-58 (+5)   95-100 (+8)  60-65        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  5         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           60           80           

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.12         0.32         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4900                      2800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW  9                     SW 20        

DISPERSION            28 FAIR                   21 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN

THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-171515-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

1003 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      66-71 (-5)   53-58 (-1)   62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      62-67 (+9)   95-100 (+5)  60-65        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           60           80           

PRECIP DURATION       1            3            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.21         0.22         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4500                      2700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW  9                     SW 18        

DISPERSION            25 FAIR                   23 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-171515-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

1003 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013 /903 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      67-72 (-5)   55-60 (0)    63-68        

RH % (24H TREND)      63-68 (+11)  95-100 (+10) 59-64        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           70           90           

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.24         0.23         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4400                      2400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW  7                     W 16         

DISPERSION            19 GEN POOR               17 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING

LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$













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