

931 

FNUS54 KMRX 210810

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

410 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...THEN STALL ACROSS 

THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL 

GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION INTO THE 

MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS 

THE REGION. THIS MEANS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 

SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE 

JULY.  



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-220900-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

410 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      79-84 (-2)   63-68 (-1)   77-82        

RH % (24H TREND)      59-64 (0)    95-100 (+2)  60-65        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           60           70           

PRECIP DURATION       2            2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.36         0.26         0.27         

LAL                   4            4            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6400                      6000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 12                      W  3         

DISPERSION            43 GEN GOOD               12 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

70S TO MID 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID

70S TO UPPER 80S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-220900-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

410 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      76-81 (-3)   61-66 (-2)   75-80        

RH % (24H TREND)      55-60 (-4)   95-100 (+6)  58-63        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           60           70           

PRECIP DURATION       2            2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.36         0.24         0.25         

LAL                   4            4            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6000                      6400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  8                      W  6         

DISPERSION            23 FAIR                   19 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-220900-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

410 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      76-81 (-1)   61-66 (-2)   74-79        

RH % (24H TREND)      55-60 (-4)   95-100 (+7)  55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   W  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           60           60           

PRECIP DURATION       2            2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.42         0.25         0.28         

LAL                   4            4            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5800                      6200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  6                      W 13         

DISPERSION            14 GEN POOR               32 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID

50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 80S. NORTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO UPPER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 80S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-220900-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

410 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      80-85 (-1)   62-67 (-2)   78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      59-64 (0)    95-100 (+5)  56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           60           60           

PRECIP DURATION       2            2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.39         0.24         0.30         

LAL                   4            4            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5700                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  7                      W 10         

DISPERSION            21 FAIR                   34 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID

70S TO LOWER 90S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-220900-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

410 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      80-85 (-1)   61-66 (-1)   77-82        

RH % (24H TREND)      56-61 (-2)   95-100 (+4)  53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           60           60           

PRECIP DURATION       2            2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.36         0.20         0.27         

LAL                   4            4            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6400                      6600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  6                      W 10         

DISPERSION            21 FAIR                   41 GEN GOOD  

MAX LVORI             5                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-220900-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

410 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      81-86 (-3)   64-69 (-2)   80-85        

RH % (24H TREND)      54-59 (+1)   95-100 (+6)  57-62        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           60           70           

PRECIP DURATION       2            2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.41         0.26         0.28         

LAL                   4            4            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6300                      5800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  9                      W  7         

DISPERSION            38 FAIR                   25 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO

UPPER 80S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-220900-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

410 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      82-87 (-3)   64-69 (-3)   80-85        

RH % (24H TREND)      56-61 (+4)   95-100 (+8)  57-62        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           60           60           

PRECIP DURATION       2            2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.48         0.28         0.35         

LAL                   5            4            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5400                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  8                      W  9         

DISPERSION            27 FAIR                   37 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID

60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-220900-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

410 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013 /310 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013/



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      81-86 (-4)   65-70 (-3)   81-86        

RH % (24H TREND)      59-64 (+4)   95-100 (+7)  56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           60           60           

PRECIP DURATION       2            2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.44         0.25         0.41         

LAL                   5            4            3            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5000                      5800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  7                      W 12         

DISPERSION            25 FAIR                   44 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID

60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID

80S TO LOWER 90S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TG/TD











