

763 

FNUS54 KMRX 041602 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1202 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY 

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA WILL 

COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 

APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

 



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-051715-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

1202 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      73-78 (-1)   63-68 (+2)   75-80        

RH % (24H TREND)      68-73 (-8)   94-99 (-2)   62-67        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE  6 G16                 S  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7 G16     LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           70           60           

PRECIP DURATION       3            3            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.64         0.24         0.16         

LAL                   3            2            2            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3700                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 25                      S 23         

DISPERSION            37 FAIR                   42 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH

SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-051715-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1202 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      71-76 (0)    61-66 (+2)   73-78        

RH % (24H TREND)      67-72 (-12)  95-100 (-1)  59-64        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE  7 G16                 SE  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7 G16    SE  5        S  5         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           60           60           

PRECIP DURATION       3            3            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.60         0.19         0.18         

LAL                   3            2            2            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4400                      4600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 30                      S 23         

DISPERSION            43 GEN GOOD               36 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 50S

TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO

LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-051715-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

1202 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      69-74 (-1)   63-68 (+3)   73-78        

RH % (24H TREND)      72-77 (-5)   91-96 (-4)   59-64        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE  7 G16                 S  7 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7 G16    SE  7 G19    S  5         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           90           80           

PRECIP DURATION       7            8            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.74         0.30         0.21         

LAL                   3            2            2            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4700                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 31                      S 24         

DISPERSION            44 GEN GOOD               45 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE 50S TO 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN

THE 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WARMER. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-051715-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1202 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      71-76 (-3)   64-69 (+2)   75-80        

RH % (24H TREND)      80-85 (+4)   93-98 (-2)   66-71        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE  8 G17                 S  8 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7 G17    SE  7 G21    S  7 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           80           

PRECIP DURATION       7            8            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.81         0.32         0.32         

LAL                   3            2            2            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3900                      4200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 29                      S 24         

DISPERSION            47 GEN GOOD               45 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN

THE 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

60S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-051715-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

1202 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      70-75 (-3)   64-69 (+3)   75-80        

RH % (24H TREND)      83-88 (+11)  91-96 (-4)   63-68        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE  7 G16                 SE  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7 G16    SE  6 G16    SE  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           80           80           

PRECIP DURATION       7            8            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.80         0.45         0.30         

LAL                   3            5            2            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4000                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 29                      S 22         

DISPERSION            44 GEN GOOD               34 FAIR      

MAX LVORI             4                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN

THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-051715-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

1202 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      74-79 (-1)   63-68 (+2)   77-82        

RH % (24H TREND)      66-71 (-8)   95-100 (0)   59-64        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE  5                     SE  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  6        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           70           60           

PRECIP DURATION       3            3            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.60         0.24         0.17         

LAL                   3            2            2            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3600                      4300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 23                      S 20         

DISPERSION            41 GEN GOOD               46 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 60S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN

THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH

SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-051715-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

1202 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      72-77 (-4)   65-70 (+2)   76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      72-77 (-1)   95-100 (0)   64-69        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   S  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  5         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           80           

PRECIP DURATION       7            8            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.93         0.43         0.31         

LAL                   3            2            2            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3500                      4700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 23                      S 25         

DISPERSION            43 GEN GOOD               75 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING

BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN

THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE

60S. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER

MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-051715-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

1202 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013 /1102 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      72-77 (-4)   65-70 (0)    76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      74-79 (+1)   93-98 (-1)   65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE  6                     S  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  6        SE  7 G19    S  7         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           80           

PRECIP DURATION       7            8            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.16         0.53         0.47         

LAL                   3            2            2            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3400                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 28                      S 25         

DISPERSION            53 GEN GOOD               53 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID

70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE

MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS AROUND 90. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$













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