

923 

FNUS54 KMRX 311851

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

251 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL 

WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 

SUNDAY.  GULF MOISTURE WILL PULL NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE 

FRONT...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR 

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR 

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS 

POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-012000-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

251 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (+2)   81-86 (0)    61-66        77-82        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (-1)   41-46 (-2)   86-91        51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  8 G16                  SW  8 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  9 G18     S  6         SW  8        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           30           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         2 PM         2 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM        8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.02         0.03         0.58         

LAL                   2            3            3            5            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7500                      6700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 18                      SW 24        

DISPERSION                         85 GOOD                   95 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER

80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER

80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-012000-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

251 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+1)   78-83 (-2)   60-65        76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (-4)   40-45 (0)    86-91        49-54        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  8 G17                  SW  7        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         S 10 G18     S  8 G18     SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           20           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         2 PM         2 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM        8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.03         0.01         0.48         

LAL                   2            2            2            4            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7300                      6500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 18                      SW 15        

DISPERSION                         74 GOOD                   48 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S

TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO

MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER

80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-012000-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

251 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (+2)   75-80 (-4)   60-65        76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (-6)   37-42 (-3)   83-88        51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 10 G19                  SW  8 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7 G16     S 11 G20     S  9 G22     SW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           20           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         2 PM         2 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM        8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.04         0.01         0.68         

LAL                   2            2            3            4            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7000                      6200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 18                      SW 16        

DISPERSION                         63 GOOD                   43 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S

TO UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH

EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER

60S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 80S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-012000-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

251 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      60-65 (+1)   79-84 (0)    63-68        78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (-1)   44-49 (-1)   87-92        59-64        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G18                  SW  7        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  6        S 10 G18     S  7 G16     SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           30           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.02         0.03         0.78         

LAL                   2            2            3            4            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6300                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 21                      SW 15        

DISPERSION                         76 GOOD                   42 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO

MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO

LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH

EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER

60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO

MID 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-012000-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

251 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (+1)   78-83 (0)    63-68        77-82        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (-3)   42-47 (-2)   83-88        57-62        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G17                  S  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5        S 10 G18     S  5         SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           30           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         2 PM         2 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM        8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.02         0.01         0.62         

LAL                   2            2            3            4            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6700                      6000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 20                      SW 12        

DISPERSION                         76 GOOD                   36 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          4                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 70S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO

MID 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-012000-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

251 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (+2)   82-87 (-1)   62-67        79-84        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (-3)   40-45 (+2)   86-91        50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  6 G15                  SW  7        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  9 G16     LGT/VAR      SW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           20           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.02         0.02         0.62         

LAL                   2            2            3            5            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7200                      6400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 17                      SW 18        

DISPERSION                         86 GOOD                   78 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING

BECOMING LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE

70S TO MID 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID

80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER

80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-012000-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

251 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (+2)   81-86 (-1)   64-69        79-84        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-2)   44-49 (+4)   88-93        55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G18                  SW  7        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 10 G19     S  6 G15     SW  8 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           30           80           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.04         0.12         0.83         

LAL                   3            3            3            5            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6300                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 22                      SW 18        

DISPERSION                         93 GOOD                   69 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING

TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID

80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO

UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO

LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-012000-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

251 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013 /151 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      64-69 (+2)   81-86 (+1)   65-70        79-84        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (-2)   46-51 (-2)   89-94        58-63        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  8 G15                  SW  7        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 10 G18     S  6         SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           40           80           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            12 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.05         0.14         1.13         

LAL                   3            3            3            5            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5700                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 23                      SW 20        

DISPERSION                         91 GOOD                   63 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS

IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE

70S TO UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER

80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID

80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$













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