

303 

FNUS54 KMRX 221913

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

313 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013



.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE 

SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS 

AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON 

THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE 

REGION BY FRIDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR 

THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-232030-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

313 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+2)   73-78 (-9)   47-52        62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (-1)   47-52 (+4)   95-100       31-36        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      N 11 G21     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7 G15     W  8         NW  7 G15    N 13 G23     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           50           40           20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.21         0.12         0.10         0.01         

LAL                   4            3            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5600                      7200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 15                      N 26         

DISPERSION                         48 GEN GOOD               119 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER

MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER

80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-232030-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

313 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (0)    72-77 (-8)   48-53        61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (0)    46-51 (+2)   90-95        30-35        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      NW 12 G24    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7 G18     W 10 G18     NW  9 G19    NW 14 G26    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           50           50           20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.24         0.14         0.16         0.02         

LAL                   4            3            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      7900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 17                      NW 28        

DISPERSION                         48 GEN GOOD               122 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER

80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-232030-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

313 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (-2)   72-77 (-6)   50-55        62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (+3)   45-50 (-1)   82-87        31-36        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  7 G16                  N 11 G21     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         W 11 G21     NW  9 G23    N 12 G21     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           30           40           20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.24         0.08         0.15         0.01         

LAL                   4            3            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6000                      7300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 17                      N 23         

DISPERSION                         44 GEN GOOD               82 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S. NORTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER

80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO

LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-232030-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

313 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (-5)   74-79 (-7)   53-58        68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+6)   45-50 (0)    86-91        28-33        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      N 11 G22     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W 10 G20     NW  8 G21    N 12 G21     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           30           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.25         0.06         0.08         0.00         

LAL                   4            3            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6000                      6600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 15                      N 24         

DISPERSION                         52 GEN GOOD               95 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 50. EAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO

LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO

MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-232030-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

313 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (-2)   74-79 (-6)   52-57        68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+3)   45-50 (+1)   88-93        27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  7                      N 12 G22     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W 10 G19     NW  9 G20    N 13 G22     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           30           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.32         0.07         0.07         0.00         

LAL                   4            3            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6000                      6900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 16                      N 26         

DISPERSION                         53 GEN GOOD               106 VERY GOOD

MAX LVORI                          4                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LESS THAN

10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER

50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO

LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER

80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-232030-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

313 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (0)    76-81 (-7)   50-55        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+1)   44-49 (+2)   95-100       30-35        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      N 10 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         W  9 G16     W  7 G16     N 11 G19     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           40           40           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.20         0.11         0.10         0.00         

LAL                   4            3            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      6900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 15                      N 22         

DISPERSION                         52 GEN GOOD               103 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING

LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHT

CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S

TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-232030-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

313 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (0)    76-81 (-7)   52-57        67-72        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (+3)   43-48 (-1)   82-87        29-34        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      N 10 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  9 G17     NW  7 G18    N 11 G19     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           30           30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   5 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.16         0.05         0.05         0.00         

LAL                   4            3            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5700                      6500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 15                      N 22         

DISPERSION                         58 GEN GOOD               96 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER

50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING

BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO

LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE

70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-232030-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

313 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013 /213 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (-2)   77-82 (-6)   53-58        68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+2)   44-49 (0)    81-86        29-34        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6 G17                  N 10 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W 11 G22     NW  8 G20    N 10 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           30           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   5 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.04         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   4            3            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      5800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 17                      N 22         

DISPERSION                         70 GOOD                   88 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID

50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO

MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



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