

500 

FNUS54 KMRX 200116 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

916 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER 

VALLEY...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE 

OVERNIGHT HOURS.   WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION 

INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS 

AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 

FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-210230-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

916 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (-1)   79-84 (+5)   58-63        81-86        

RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (-1)   48-53 (-12)  93-98        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  5        LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                12 PM        

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING                CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.14         0.09         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   4            3            1            3            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5600                      6200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      SW 15        

DISPERSION                         34 FAIR                   55 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS NEAR 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-210230-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

916 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+1)   77-82 (+4)   57-62        80-85        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+1)   48-53 (-13)  91-96        46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  5        LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           40           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.16         0.11         0.02         0.03         

LAL                   4            3            2            3            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      6400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      SW 12        

DISPERSION                         30 FAIR                   37 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS NEAR

60. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-210230-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

916 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (-1)   78-83 (+6)   57-62        79-84        

RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (+3)   47-52 (-17)  92-97        47-52        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     SW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6         S  5         SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.06         0.01         0.02         

LAL                   4            3            2            3            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      6400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 10                      SW 14        

DISPERSION                         26 FAIR                   40 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-210230-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

916 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (-1)   82-87 (+7)   60-65        83-88        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  46-51 (-16)  90-95        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  6                      S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6         S  5         SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                12 PM        

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING                CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.04         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   4            3            1            3            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      6500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     SW 16        

DISPERSION                         37 FAIR                   60 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO

LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-210230-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

916 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (-1)   80-85 (+7)   58-63        82-87        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+2)  47-52 (-17)  95-100       46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  5                      S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6         LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                12 PM        

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING                CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.07         0.00         0.04         

LAL                   4            3            1            3            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6000                      6600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 10                     SW 15        

DISPERSION                         33 FAIR                   55 GEN GOOD  

MAX LVORI                          4                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-210230-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

916 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (-1)   80-85 (+4)   59-64        82-87        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  47-52 (-12)  92-97        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  5         LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                12 PM        

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.07         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   4            3            1            3            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      6000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 10                      SW 15        

DISPERSION                         37 FAIR                   57 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

70S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-210230-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

916 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      60-65 (-2)   82-87 (+6)   61-66        83-88        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (-2)   47-52 (-16)  89-94        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SE  6        LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                12 PM        

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.02         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   4            3            1            3            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      6000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     SW 18        

DISPERSION                         43 GEN GOOD               75 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

80S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS NEAR 80. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER

80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID

70S TO LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID

70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-210230-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

916 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013 /816 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (-3)   83-88 (+5)   62-67        85-90        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  46-51 (-17)  89-94        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  5                      S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6         S  5         SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           20           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                12 PM        

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.02         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   4            3            1            2            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5300                      6200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 14                     SW 18        

DISPERSION                         51 GEN GOOD               81 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID

80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST

EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH

SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO

LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS NEAR 80.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID

70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$













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