

034 

FNUS54 KMRX 160727

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

327 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013



.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW 

PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE AREA...GIVING THE REGION A CHANCE 

OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE 

REST OF THE WEEK. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-170830-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

327 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      76-81 (-3)   53-58 (+1)   76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      35-40 (+4)   88-93 (+4)   38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  8 G16                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8 G16     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           30           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.18         0.03         0.15         

LAL                   3            3            3            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7100                      8100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 18                      W 10         

DISPERSION            83 GOOD                   53 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO

LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-170830-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

327 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      73-78 (-3)   51-56 (0)    75-80        

RH % (24H TREND)      34-39 (0)    86-91 (+7)   38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  9 G19                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7 G17     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           30           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.03         0.10         

LAL                   3            3            3            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7000                      8900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 18                      W  8         

DISPERSION            67 GOOD                   44 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH

SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID

60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO

LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-170830-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

327 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      71-76 (-3)   50-55 (-1)   71-76        

RH % (24H TREND)      35-40 (+4)   85-90 (+9)   40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  7                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  6         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.03         0.09         

LAL                   3            3            3            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6900                      7200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 13                      SW  7        

DISPERSION            44 GEN GOOD               24 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHT

CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 80S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-170830-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

327 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      76-81 (-3)   52-57 (0)    76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      37-42 (+6)   88-93 (+4)   41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  5                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.02         0.09         

LAL                   3            2            3            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7000                      6800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 10                      SW  9        

DISPERSION            46 GEN GOOD               36 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO

MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-170830-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

327 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      75-80 (-4)   52-57 (+2)   75-80        

RH % (24H TREND)      36-41 (+8)   87-92 (-3)   40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  5                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        LGT/VAR      SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.02         0.07         

LAL                   3            2            3            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7400                      7700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 10                      SW  8        

DISPERSION            47 GEN GOOD               36 FAIR      

MAX LVORI             4                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO

LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-170830-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

327 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      77-82 (-4)   53-58 (+1)   79-84        

RH % (24H TREND)      35-40 (+5)   92-97 (+6)   37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  6                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  6         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           30           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.02         0.12         

LAL                   3            3            3            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6400                      8200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 16                      SW  8        

DISPERSION            70 GOOD                   49 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO

LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-170830-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

327 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      77-82 (-5)   55-60 (0)    78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      36-41 (+7)   87-92 (+8)   38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        LGT/VAR      SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.03         0.12         

LAL                   3            3            3            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6500                      6700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 14                      SW  9        

DISPERSION            62 GOOD                   43 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO

LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-170830-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

327 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013 /227 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      78-83 (-5)   55-60 (-1)   79-84        

RH % (24H TREND)      36-41 (+7)   90-95 (+10)  41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.02         0.11         

LAL                   3            2            3            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7000                      6600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 10                     SW 13        

DISPERSION            53 GEN GOOD               58 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTH

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$













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