

905 

FNUS54 KMRX 061850

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

250 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD 

MIGRATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS 

AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGHOUT 

THE WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A 

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-072000-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

250 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      42-47 (-4)   60-65 (0)    46-51        66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-1)  53-58 (-3)   93-98        47-52        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           70           40           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            3            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.38         0.11         0.06         

LAL                   1            4            1            3            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  6                      W  6         

DISPERSION                         18 GEN POOR               15 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID

50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072000-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

250 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (-4)   56-61 (-1)   45-50        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (-5)   56-61 (-1)   93-98        48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           70           40           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            3            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.27         0.13         0.06         

LAL                   1            4            1            3            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6000                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  6                      W  7         

DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               14 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-072000-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

250 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+1)   56-61 (+1)   45-50        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (-9)   50-55 (-6)   95-100       49-54        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           40           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.09         0.07         0.04         

LAL                   1            3            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  8                      NW 12        

DISPERSION                         19 GEN POOR               17 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID

50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-072000-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

250 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (-1)   62-67 (+5)   46-51        68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (-3)   45-50 (-11)  93-98        45-50        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           30           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.05         0.03         0.04         

LAL                   1            3            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6000                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  9                      NW 13        

DISPERSION                         30 FAIR                   30 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID

50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-072000-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

250 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (-1)   61-66 (+4)   45-50        68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-1)  46-51 (-12)  93-98        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           30           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.06         0.03         0.04         

LAL                   1            3            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6300                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  8                      NW 14        

DISPERSION                         27 FAIR                   32 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          4                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 50. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING

TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID

50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S TO MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-072000-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

250 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (-5)   61-66 (0)    47-52        68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (-4)   50-55 (-1)   93-98        46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           50           40           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.19         0.11         0.05         

LAL                   1            4            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  5                      W  6         

DISPERSION                         17 GEN POOR               18 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID

50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-072000-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

250 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      42-47 (-2)   64-69 (+3)   48-53        69-74        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (-6)   44-49 (-5)   93-98        47-52        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           30           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.07         0.06         0.04         

LAL                   1            4            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      4300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  7                      NW  8        

DISPERSION                         28 FAIR                   22 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID

50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-072000-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

250 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 /150 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2013/



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      41-46 (-2)   66-71 (+8)   48-53        70-75        

RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (+1)   40-45 (-16)  93-98        46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.03         0.02         0.04         

LAL                   1            3            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6000                      4200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  7                      NW 13        

DISPERSION                         32 FAIR                   34 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER

50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

60S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$













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