

165 

FNUS54 KMRX 141844

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

245 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013



.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE 

SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A WARMING 

TREND DEVELOPING FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL 

BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD 

FRONT BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END 

OF THE WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-151945-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

245 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+11)  70-75 (-3)   52-57        76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      82-87 (-6)   41-46 (+15)  87-92        41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  7                      S  7 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  9 G18     S  7         S  6         SW  9 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           30           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                8 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.03         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 16                     SW 20        

DISPERSION                         27 FAIR                   32 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

40S TO MID 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. 

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-151945-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

245 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+7)   68-73 (-1)   51-56        74-79        

RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (-1)   43-48 (+14)  86-91        41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  6 G15                  S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 13 G25    LGT/VAR      S  7 G17     SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           50           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                8 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.04         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     SW 14        

DISPERSION                         13 GEN POOR               14 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 

15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

40S TO MID 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-151945-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

245 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (+3)   67-72 (+4)   53-58        72-77        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+9)   44-49 (+10)  83-88        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  6 G15                  SW  7 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 13 G29    SW  5        S  8 G23     SW  6 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           40           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                8 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.04         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      4200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 14                     SW 16        

DISPERSION                         14 GEN POOR               15 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE 30S. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO 

UPPER 50S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO 

LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-151945-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

245 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (+6)   70-75 (+5)   55-60        75-80        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+6)   44-49 (+9)   84-89        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  6                      S  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 13 G26    S  7 G15     SE  8 G20    S  7         

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                8 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.03         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 15                     SW 16        

DISPERSION                         26 FAIR                   27 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 

MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 

50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 

MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-151945-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

245 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (+10)  68-73 (+3)   52-57        74-79        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+1)   48-53 (+11)  93-98        45-50        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 13 G24    S  7         SE  5        S  5         

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           40           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                8 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.03         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 13                     SW 14        

DISPERSION                         19 GEN POOR               21 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          4                         5            



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 30S. HIGHS NEAR 60. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 

50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 

MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-151945-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

245 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+9)   72-77 (0)    53-58        77-82        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (-1)   41-46 (+12)  87-92        40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  8 G18    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  7 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           40           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                8 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.03         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      3900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 13                     SW 16        

DISPERSION                         25 FAIR                   33 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS NEAR 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 30S. HIGHS NEAR 60. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. 

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 

TO LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-151945-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

245 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (+8)   73-78 (+4)   56-61        76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+6)   41-46 (+8)   84-89        42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  5                      S  5 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  6 G15    S  7 G15     S  7 G15     SW  8 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           30           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                8 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.02         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 17                     SW 20        

DISPERSION                         37 FAIR                   39 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO 

LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 

MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-151945-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

245 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013 /145 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013/



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (+8)   73-78 (+6)   57-62        78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+7)   43-48 (+8)   81-86        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  6                      S  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  9 G20    S  8 G17     S  8 G17     S  8 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                8 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.01         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            3            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 18                     SW 18        

DISPERSION                         42 GEN GOOD               39 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS NEAR 80. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

COOLER. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 

15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS NEAR 60. 

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$







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