

840 

FNUS54 KMRX 201956

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

356 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013



...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...



.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW UPPER FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN 

SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE 

HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY...BUT 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-212100-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

356 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013



...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      19-24 (-5)   31-36 (-14)  18-23        44-49        

RH % (24H TREND)      59-64 (+10)  22-27 (0)    68-73        25-30        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 10 G19                 W  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 11 G19    NW 10 G19    W  5         W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       1                                                   

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM                                                

PRECIP END            8 AM                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6900                      6600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 22                     NW 13        

DISPERSION                         94 GOOD                   50 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING

BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER

50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO

LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-212100-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

356 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      17-22 (-6)   30-35 (-15)  18-23        43-48        

RH % (24H TREND)      64-69 (+17)  23-28 (+3)   72-77        25-30        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 12 G22                 W  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 11 G23    NW 14 G24    W  6 G19     W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2                                                   

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM                                                

PRECIP END            8 AM                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7200                      6600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 28                     NW 17        

DISPERSION                         105 VERY GOOD             57 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S

TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH

AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...BREEZY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 25 MPH. 

.MONDAY...BREEZY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT

CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-212100-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

356 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      15-20 (-10)  33-38 (-10)  20-25        42-47        

RH % (24H TREND)      67-72 (+17)  18-23 (-2)   78-83        40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  9 G22                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 11 G23    NW 12 G23    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       2                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM                                   8 AM         

PRECIP END            8 AM                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.00         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7300                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 24                     W 14         

DISPERSION                         85 GOOD                   27 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO

LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTH

WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...BREEZY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 25 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO

LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-212100-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

356 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      20-25 (-7)   42-47 (-8)   22-27        45-50        

RH % (24H TREND)      64-69 (+8)   16-21 (-4)   92-97        45-50        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  9 G19                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 12 G22    NW 11 G20    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         FLURRIES     RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           0            0            40           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            5 AM                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.00         0.00         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6700                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 25                     W  9         

DISPERSION                         98 GOOD                   22 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTH

WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...BREEZY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-212100-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

356 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      19-24 (-7)   43-48 (-6)   20-25        45-50        

RH % (24H TREND)      65-70 (+3)   14-19 (-7)   95-100       48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 11 G22                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 11 G20    NW 12 G22    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         FLURRIES     RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           0            0            40           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            5 AM                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.00         0.00         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7200                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 29                     W 13         

DISPERSION                         121 VERY GOOD             38 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          1                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS NEAR 40. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...BREEZY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-212100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

356 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      19-24 (-6)   34-39 (-15)  19-24        46-51        

RH % (24H TREND)      64-69 (+10)  22-27 (+2)   77-82        29-34        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  9 G18                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 10 G19    NW 11 G20    LGT/VAR      W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           0            0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM                                   8 AM         

PRECIP END            5 AM                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.00         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6900                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 21                     W  9         

DISPERSION                         99 GOOD                   35 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S

TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE

EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER

50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-212100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

356 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      21-26 (-5)   38-43 (-13)  23-28        44-49        

RH % (24H TREND)      60-65 (+8)   19-24 (+1)   75-80        33-38        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  8 G17                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 10 G21    NW 10 G18    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM                                   8 AM         

PRECIP END            11 PM                                  CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6600                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 18                     W  6         

DISPERSION                         86 GOOD                   19 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO

LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. EAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-212100-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

356 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013 /256 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2013/



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      22-27 (-7)   42-47 (-12)  27-32        45-50        

RH % (24H TREND)      59-64 (+9)   16-21 (-2)   81-86        41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  8 G18                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 11 G20    NW  9 G18    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         FLURRIES     RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            50           

PRECIP DURATION                                              1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.06         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      3900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 22                     W  5         

DISPERSION                         89 GOOD                   11 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...BREEZY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS

IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$













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