

104 

FNUS54 KMRX 161904 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

304 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THEN WILL STALL 

BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT 

WILL THEN SWING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-172015-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

304 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      42-47 (-1)   55-60 (-11)  42-47        60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+8)   50-55 (+7)   86-91        56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  9 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  6 G15     LGT/VAR      SE  5        S 10         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           60           50           90           

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.08         0.03         0.23         

LAL                   1            1            1            5            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 10                     SW 33        

DISPERSION                         17 GEN POOR               45 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-172015-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

304 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      42-47 (-2)   55-60 (-10)  42-47        59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+14)  49-54 (+7)   85-90        52-57        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S 11 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8 G21     SW  5        SE  7        S  9 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           40           50           80           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.03         0.04         0.17         

LAL                   1            1            1            5            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4700                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     SW 33        

DISPERSION                         19 GEN POOR               22 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE

NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO

LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS NEAR 50.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-172015-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

304 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (0)    60-65 (-4)   45-50        62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      83-88 (+9)   43-48 (+2)   81-86        52-57        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  8                     S 12 G23     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G23     SW  9 G18    S  8 G16     SW 11 G21    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           30           80           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.02         0.02         0.29         

LAL                   1            1            1            5            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6100                      4200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 18                     SW 37        

DISPERSION                         49 GEN GOOD               35 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE

NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID

30S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-172015-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

304 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (+2)   66-71 (-2)   49-54        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      82-87 (+2)   40-45 (0)    90-95        56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     S 11 G20     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5 G16    SW  8 G16    S  7         S  9 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            20           90           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM                      8 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            8 AM                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.02         0.34         

LAL                   1            1            1            5            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4900                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 20                     SW 31        

DISPERSION                         46 GEN GOOD               36 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE

NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS NEAR 30. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-172015-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

304 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+3)   67-72 (-1)   48-53        64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (0)    42-47 (+2)   89-94        59-64        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     S  8 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  7        S  6         S  7         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            20           90           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM                      8 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            8 AM                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.02         0.30         

LAL                   1            1            1            5            

LASI                               4                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5700                      3400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 17                     SW 29        

DISPERSION                         52 GEN GOOD               28 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          4                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE

NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-172015-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

304 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      44-49 (+1)   62-67 (-8)   44-49        62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (+4)   42-47 (+4)   86-91        52-57        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  9 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  6         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  9 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           40           40           90           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.04         0.02         0.26         

LAL                   1            1            1            5            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      2900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     SW 32        

DISPERSION                         23 FAIR                   40 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR

40. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER

MIDNIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS NEAR 30. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS NEAR 50.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-172015-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

304 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+1)   65-70 (-7)   47-52        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (+7)   37-42 (+2)   84-89        50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S 11 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  5         SW  7 G15    S  5         SW 10 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           30           40           90           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.03         0.02         0.40         

LAL                   1            1            1            5            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 16                     SW 36        

DISPERSION                         42 GEN GOOD               70 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE

NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO

MID 30S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-172015-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

304 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013 /204 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2013/



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+1)   69-74 (-4)   50-55        67-72        

RH % (24H TREND)      81-86 (+2)   36-41 (+2)   86-91        53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     S 11 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        SW  8 G15    SW  6        S  9 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            20           90           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM                      8 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            8 AM                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.02         0.43         

LAL                   1            1            1            5            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 21                     SW 31        

DISPERSION                         56 GEN GOOD               55 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH

AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$













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