

989 

FNUS54 KMRX 182005

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

305 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013



.DISCUSSION...

WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE RETURNED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN 

REGION TODAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF AN 

APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS 

INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS

EXPECTED AROUND THE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. A 

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE LATER THIS WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-192115-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

305 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      32-37 (+16)  42-47 (-8)   16-21        34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+19)  41-46 (+12)  70-75        23-28        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 11 G20                 W 10 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 13 G30     W 13 G22     W 10 G20     NW 10 G19    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          70           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.15         0.05         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6200                      6000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 36                     NW 24        

DISPERSION                         126 VERY GOOD             83 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 18 TO 23. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS IN THE MID TO

UPPER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-192115-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

305 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      30-35 (+16)  42-47 (-6)   16-21        34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+22) 38-43 (+9)   67-72        19-24        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 13 G26                 NW 14 G27    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 21 G42     W 14 G25     W 13 G24     NW 12 G24    

PRECIP TYPE           SLEET        SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           90           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            3                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          3 AM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   4 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.11         0.10         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6200                      6000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 36                      NW 32        

DISPERSION                         104 VERY GOOD             87 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 24. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE

AFTERNOON. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS IN THE 30S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-192115-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

305 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      32-37 (+17)  41-46 (-7)   18-23        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (+11)  32-37 (+4)   64-69        8-13         

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 13 G31                 NW  8 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 22 G48     W 14 G25     W 11 G24     NW  7 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            3                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          3 AM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   4 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.20         0.08         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6200                      6000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 35                      NW 23        

DISPERSION                         90 GOOD                   54 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO MID 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-192115-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

305 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (+16)  46-51 (-6)   19-24        40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (+11)  30-35 (+5)   67-72        12-17        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  9 G18                 NW  8 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 21 G42     W 12 G23     NW  8 G16    NW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       3            3                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          3 AM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   4 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.31         0.04         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6100                      5900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 26                      NW 22        

DISPERSION                         93 GOOD                   72 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE

SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-192115-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

305 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      30-35 (+13)  46-51 (-4)   18-23        43-48        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+14) 30-35 (+4)   69-74        8-13         

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6 G16                 NW 10 G17    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 16 G34     W 12 G22     NW  9 G17    NW  9 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           SLEET        SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            3                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          3 AM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   4 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.28         0.07         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6200                      6000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 28                      NW 26        

DISPERSION                         91 GOOD                   85 GOOD      

MAX LVORI                          4                         2            



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-192115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

305 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      32-37 (+14)  45-50 (-6)   17-22        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+24) 35-40 (+7)   70-75        19-24        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 10 G20                 W  9 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G26     W 14 G23     W  9 G18     NW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            2                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.16         0.07         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6000                      5800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 33                      NW 21        

DISPERSION                         130 VERY GOOD             79 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 18 TO 25. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST LESS THAN

10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 30S

TO LOWER 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-192115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

305 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (+14)  46-51 (-8)   19-24        40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (+14)  31-36 (+4)   65-70        19-24        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  9 G18                 NW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 14 G33     W 13 G22     W  7 G17     NW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          60           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       4            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          9 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.29         0.03         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      5600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 30                      NW 17        

DISPERSION                         116 VERY GOOD             66 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S

TO UPPER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO

LOWER 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S

TO LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-192115-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

305 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013 /205 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013/



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (+15)  48-53 (-7)   22-27        42-47        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (+7)   30-35 (+4)   62-67        16-21        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  8 G18                  NW  7 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 16 G33     W 12 G21     NW  7 G16    NW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          30           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       5            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          9 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.41         0.01         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5600                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 25                      NW 18        

DISPERSION                         98 GOOD                   69 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. NOT AS COOL. LOWS NEAR 40. SOUTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S

TO LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40.

HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN

THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$













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