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FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

113 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013



.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION 

TODAY...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY 

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS 

OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. WARMER TEMPERATURES 

WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH 

WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-171915-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

113 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      31-36 (-11)  14-19 (-9)   29-34        

RH % (24H TREND)      42-47 (-13)  65-70 (-26)  27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     N  7                      W 10         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 10 G18    NW 12 G21    NW  8 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.04         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6800                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 14                     NW 28        

DISPERSION            58 GEN GOOD               98 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 18 TO 25. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-171915-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

113 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      30-35 (-18)  14-19 (-9)   30-35        

RH % (24H TREND)      43-48 (+1)   63-68 (-28)  26-31        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  8 G16                 W 12 G21     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 12 G23    NW 14 G25    NW 11 G21    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.04         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6800                      6300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 16                     NW 32        

DISPERSION            56 GEN GOOD               99 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 17 TO 23. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS IN THE 30S TO

LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-171915-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

113 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      30-35 (-15)  15-20 (-9)   34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      39-44 (-6)   61-66 (-24)  19-24        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     N  7 G17                  W  9 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 13 G24    NW 13 G26    W  8 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6700                      6300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 14                     NW 25        

DISPERSION            44 GEN GOOD               68 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 25. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S

TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-171915-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

113 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (-16)  17-22 (-9)   40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      35-40 (-12)  68-73 (-15)  20-25        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     N  8 G17                  W  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 13 G23    NW 12 G22    W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM                                   

PRECIP END            7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6900                      6300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 16                     NW 22        

DISPERSION            68 GOOD                   77 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 29. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS AROUND 40.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-171915-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

113 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      32-37 (-18)  15-20 (-10)  39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      38-43 (-5)   69-74 (-13)  19-24        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  8 G18                 NW  8 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 13 G24    NW 13 G23    W  8         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM                                   

PRECIP END            7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6900                      6300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 16                     NW 25        

DISPERSION            66 GOOD                   90 GOOD      

MAX LVORI             3                         2            



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-171915-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

113 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      33-38 (-14)  16-21 (-9)   34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      39-44 (-9)   66-71 (-21)  24-29        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  6                     W 10 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 11 G20    NW 12 G21    W  8 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6400                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 14                     W 26         

DISPERSION            57 GEN GOOD               105 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 17 TO 24. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 30S

TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-171915-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

113 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (-11)  17-22 (-9)   37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      32-37 (-21)  64-69 (-18)  23-28        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     N  7 G16                  W  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 11 G20    NW 11 G20    W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM                                   

PRECIP END            7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6600                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 15                     NW 21        

DISPERSION            68 GOOD                   86 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS NEAR 40. SOUTH

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-171915-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

113 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013 /1213 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2013/



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (-13)  19-24 (-9)   41-46        

RH % (24H TREND)      29-34 (-16)  62-67 (-8)   22-27        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     N  8 G19                  W  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 12 G22    NW  9 G20    W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM                                   

PRECIP END            7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7000                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 17                     NW 18        

DISPERSION            88 GOOD                   71 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS NEAR 40. SOUTH

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 



$$













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