

934 

FNUS54 KMRX 151954

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

254 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW RAIN 

AND SNOW SHOWERS...AS WELL AS MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. IT 

APPEARS THAT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE 

HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. 

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY 

MONDAY. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-162100-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

254 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      23-28 (-3)   31-36 (-11)  14-19        30-35        

RH % (24H TREND)      81-86 (-11)  35-40 (-19)  59-64        23-28        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  N  6                      NW 11 G20    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  6        NW  9 G17    NW 10 G19    NW 10 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           30           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.05         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6600                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 14                     NW 29        

DISPERSION                         54 GEN GOOD               79 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS NEAR 50. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-162100-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

254 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      23-28 (-2)   31-36 (-17)  13-18        31-36        

RH % (24H TREND)      82-87 (-8)   38-43 (-4)   60-65        23-28        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  6                     NW 14 G26    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7        NW 11 G21    NW 12 G23    NW 13 G27    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           40           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.04         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7000                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 15                     NW 35        

DISPERSION                         57 GEN GOOD               63 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 25. NORTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 30S

TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-162100-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

254 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      24-29 (-2)   32-37 (-13)  13-18        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      83-88 (-6)   31-36 (-14)  61-66        16-21        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  7 G16                 W 10 G22     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7        NW 12 G22    NW 12 G22    W  9 G19     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           40           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.04         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7400                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 15                     NW 18        

DISPERSION                         57 GEN GOOD               36 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE

AFTERNOON. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S

TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-162100-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

254 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      28-33 (-1)   35-40 (-15)  16-21        41-46        

RH % (24H TREND)      81-86 (-9)   30-35 (-17)  65-70        17-22        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  N  8 G15                  W  7 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     N  7         NW 13 G23    NW  9 G18    W  8 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.02         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7400                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 18                     NW 16        

DISPERSION                         83 GOOD                   48 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-162100-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

254 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      28-33 (+3)   34-39 (-16)  15-20        40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      82-87 (-14)  31-36 (-12)  65-70        15-20        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  8 G17                 NW 10 G21    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  6        NW 13 G22    NW 11 G21    NW  9 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.03         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7500                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 18                     NW 20        

DISPERSION                         86 GOOD                   50 GEN GOOD  

MAX LVORI                          3                         1            



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-162100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

254 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      25-30 (-2)   34-39 (-13)  15-20        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      80-85 (-11)  32-37 (-16)  62-67        21-26        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  5                     W 11 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  5        NW 10 G19    NW 11 G18    W  9 G19     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           30           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.04         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6700                      5800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 14                     W 25         

DISPERSION                         60 GEN GOOD               91 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S

TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-162100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

254 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      26-31 (-4)   36-41 (-9)   16-21        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      74-79 (-14)  25-30 (-28)  61-66        19-24        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  6                     W  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  6        NW 11 G20    NW  9 G17    W  7         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.03         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6800                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 15                     W 15         

DISPERSION                         72 GOOD                   64 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS NEAR 40. SOUTH

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-162100-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

254 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013 /154 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013/



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      28-33 (-3)   38-43 (-12)  18-23        43-48        

RH % (24H TREND)      72-77 (-17)  23-28 (-22)  62-67        18-23        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  7 G18                 W  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     N  7 G15     NW 12 G21    NW  7 G17    W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     10           0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       1                                                   

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                                

PRECIP END            7 AM                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7200                      5900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 20                     W 14         

DISPERSION                         102 VERY GOOD             59 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S TO MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$













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