

050 

FNUS54 KMRX 151519 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1019 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY... 

BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT 

WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW SNOW 

SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT ANY 

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS 

OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...WHERE UP TO TWO 

INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-161630-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

1019 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      44-49 (-1)   23-28 (-3)   27-32        

RH % (24H TREND)      50-55 (+3)   80-85 (-12)  42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     N  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  6        NW  6        NW  8 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.11         0.05         0.05         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4700                      6600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 14                      NW 13        

DISPERSION            32 FAIR                   49 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 14 TO 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 19 TO 26. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS NEAR 50. SOUTH WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-161630-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1019 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (0)    23-28 (-2)   28-33        

RH % (24H TREND)      44-49 (+5)   81-86 (-9)   40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  7 G18                 NW  7        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 10 G19     NW  7 G15    NW 10 G19    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.05         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4700                      7000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 17                      NW 14        

DISPERSION            30 FAIR                   52 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 13 TO 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 24. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.



$$



TNZ072-074-161630-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

1019 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+1)   23-28 (-3)   29-34        

RH % (24H TREND)      43-48 (+2)   75-80 (-14)  32-37        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  8 G18                 NW  7 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  9 G19    NW  7 G16    NW 11 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.04         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4900                      7400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 15                      NW 14        

DISPERSION            24 FAIR                   53 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 11 TO 21. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. SOUTH

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID

50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-161630-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1019 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (+2)   26-31 (-3)   32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      46-51 (+1)   77-82 (-13)  31-36        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5 G15                 NW  8 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  9 G17    N  7 G15     NW 11 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.02         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4800                      7400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 13                      NW 17        

DISPERSION            29 FAIR                   78 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 13 TO 22. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-161630-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

1019 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+2)   26-31 (+1)   31-36        

RH % (24H TREND)      44-49 (0)    79-84 (-17)  30-35        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW  8 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G16     NW  7        NW 12 G21    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.02         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5000                      7500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 13                      NW 18        

DISPERSION            29 FAIR                   81 GOOD      

MAX LVORI             4                         3            



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 14 TO 21. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-161630-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

1019 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (-1)   25-30 (-2)   31-36        

RH % (24H TREND)      45-50 (+5)   80-85 (-11)  37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  6 G15                 NW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  8 G16    NW  6        NW  9 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.03         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4100                      6700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 15                      NW 13        

DISPERSION            35 FAIR                   55 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 14 TO 21. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 24. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID

50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-161630-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

1019 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (-2)   25-30 (-5)   32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      42-47 (+3)   71-76 (-17)  32-37        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  5                      NW  7        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7        NW  7 G15    NW 10 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.02         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4500                      6800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 13                      NW 14        

DISPERSION            36 FAIR                   66 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 21. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-161630-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

1019 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013 /919 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013/



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (-1)   26-31 (-5)   34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      41-46 (+4)   68-73 (-21)  27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  5                      NW  8 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  8        NW  8 G16    NW 11 G21    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           10           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          10 AM        CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4800                      7200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 14                      NW 18        

DISPERSION            41 GEN GOOD               96 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 25. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$













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