

180 

FNUS54 KMRX 142011

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

311 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013



.DISCUSSION...

DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE 

REGION FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY 

AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS 

THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. COLD AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE FRIDAY 

MAY PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN 

VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...WITH A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF 

SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING IN THOSE AREAS.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-152115-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

311 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      30-35 (+1)   44-49 (-1)   24-29        30-35        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (-6)   45-50 (-2)   84-89        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  7        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        NW  7        LGT/VAR      NW  9 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            60           40           30           

PRECIP DURATION                    2            2            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       10 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.13         0.08         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6400                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 18                      NW 17        

DISPERSION                         72 GOOD                   45 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 14 TO 21. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT AS COOL. HIGHS IN

THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-152115-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

311 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      27-32 (+1)   44-49 (-1)   22-27        30-35        

RH % (24H TREND)      82-87 (-6)   40-45 (+1)   90-95        37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  9 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7 G16     W  9 G17     NW  5        NW 11 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            70           60           30           

PRECIP DURATION                    2            2            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       10 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.10         0.08         0.06         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6900                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 22                     NW 20        

DISPERSION                         80 GOOD                   40 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 15 TO 21. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COOL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO

MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-152115-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

311 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      26-31 (0)    42-47 (-2)   20-25        32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (-3)   40-45 (-1)   91-96        29-34        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5 G16                 NW  7 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G17    W 10 G20     NW  5        NW 11 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            50           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            2            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       10 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.11         0.04         0.05         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6300                      5600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 25                      NW 15        

DISPERSION                         72 GOOD                   33 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 13 TO 23. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-152115-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

311 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      28-33 (0)    49-54 (+1)   25-30        36-41        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (-1)   41-46 (-4)   89-94        27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  9         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        W  9 G19     N  6         NW 10 G19    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION                    1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       10 AM                     7 AM         

PRECIP END                         7 PM                      7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.09         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6200                      5100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 24                      NW 21        

DISPERSION                         85 GOOD                   56 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 24. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-152115-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

311 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      28-33 (0)    51-56 (+4)   26-31        34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (-2)   36-41 (-8)   84-89        26-31        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  9         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W 10 G17     NW  6        NW 11 G21    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION                    1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       10 AM                     7 AM         

PRECIP END                         7 PM                      7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.07         0.00         0.05         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6600                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 23                      NW 23        

DISPERSION                         88 GOOD                   58 GEN GOOD  

MAX LVORI                          3                         3            



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 23. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-152115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

311 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      28-33 (0)    47-52 (-1)   26-31        33-38        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (+1)   41-46 (+1)   80-85        33-38        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  7        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        NW  8 G18    LGT/VAR      NW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            60           40           20           

PRECIP DURATION                    2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       10 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.08         0.04         0.06         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6200                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 21                     NW 16        

DISPERSION                         87 GOOD                   54 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 16 TO 22. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID

50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-152115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

311 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      29-34 (0)    45-50 (-5)   24-29        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (-4)   42-47 (+3)   83-88        29-34        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        NW  7 G15    N  5         NW  8 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            50           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       10 AM        CONTINUING   7 AM         

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   1 AM         7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.06         0.02         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6100                      5100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 18                      NW 17        

DISPERSION                         80 GOOD                   57 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 23. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID

50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-152115-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

311 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013 /211 PM CST THU FEB 14 2013/



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      30-35 (-1)   49-54 (-3)   25-30        37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (-1)   39-44 (+2)   75-80        25-30        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  8 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        NW  9 G16    N  6         NW 10 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                    1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN                       10 AM                                  

PRECIP END                         7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.04         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5700                      5900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 21                      NW 23        

DISPERSION                         81 GOOD                   93 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 18 TO 25. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$













