

976 

FNUS54 KMRX 140916

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

416 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013



.DISCUSSION...

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVENING AS A 

WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. MUCH

COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-151030-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

416 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+6)   30-35 (+3)   40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      39-44 (-26)  81-86 (-11)  48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  6                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G15    LGT/VAR      W  7         

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            60           

PRECIP DURATION                                 2            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    10 AM        

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.13         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5300                      6400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 13                      SW 25        

DISPERSION            36 FAIR                   98 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND

SHOWERS. LOWS 13 TO 28. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 13 TO 19. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN

THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-151030-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

416 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      44-49 (+5)   27-32 (+2)   42-47        

RH % (24H TREND)      33-38 (-38)  84-89 (-4)   41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8         W  5         W  9 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            60           

PRECIP DURATION                                 2            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    10 AM        

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6000                      6900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 14                      SW 24        

DISPERSION            39 FAIR                   89 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND

SHOWERS. LOWS 11 TO 28. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

13 TO 19. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN

THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-151030-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

416 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      44-49 (+3)   25-30 (0)    41-46        

RH % (24H TREND)      28-33 (-41)  87-92 (0)    40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8 G16     W  7 G16     W  7         

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            50           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    10 AM        

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5900                      6300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 14                      SW 25        

DISPERSION            34 FAIR                   72 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND

SHOWERS. LOWS 8 TO 27. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 10 TO 21. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-151030-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

416 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (+4)   27-32 (0)    46-51        

RH % (24H TREND)      37-42 (-34)  85-90 (-6)   39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7         LGT/VAR      W  8 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    10 AM        

PRECIP END                                      7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.09         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5100                      6200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 13                      SW 22        

DISPERSION            32 FAIR                   79 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 13 TO 28. NORTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 12 TO 21. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID

50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-151030-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

416 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (+5)   27-32 (0)    47-52        

RH % (24H TREND)      32-37 (-38)  83-88 (-6)   37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7         LGT/VAR      W  9         

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    10 AM        

PRECIP END                                      7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5700                      6600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 14                      W 21         

DISPERSION            42 GEN GOOD               79 GOOD      

MAX LVORI             3                         3            



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 27. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 13 TO 20. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO

MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-151030-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

416 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (+6)   27-32 (0)    46-51        

RH % (24H TREND)      35-40 (-36)  86-91 (0)    41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7        LGT/VAR      W  7         

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            60           

PRECIP DURATION                                 2            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    10 AM        

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4700                      6200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 12                      SW 25        

DISPERSION            31 FAIR                   104 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS 16 TO 29. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS

IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN

THE AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 14 TO 21. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-151030-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

416 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (+9)   29-34 (+1)   44-49        

RH % (24H TREND)      33-38 (-40)  82-87 (-8)   41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G16    LGT/VAR      W  7 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            50           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    10 AM        

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.06         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5000                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 13                      SW 24        

DISPERSION            40 FAIR                   103 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT

CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS 17 TO 28. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS 15 TO 23. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-151030-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

416 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013 /316 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013/



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+7)   30-35 (0)    47-52        

RH % (24H TREND)      34-39 (-37)  82-87 (-6)   38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G15    LGT/VAR      W  9 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            20           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    1 PM         

PRECIP END                                      7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4900                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 13                      W 23         

DISPERSION            42 GEN GOOD               88 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 17 TO 25. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TD/SON











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