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FNUS54 KMRX 312213 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

513 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN 

REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW 

ACCUMULATIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE 

REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OR SNOW 

SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT A GRADUAL 

WARMING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-012315-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

513 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      17-22 (-8)   21-26 (-12)  13-18        31-36        

RH % (24H TREND)      62-67 (-33)  37-42 (-10)  64-69        45-50        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           30           0            60           

PRECIP DURATION       5            1                         2            

PRECIP BEGIN          9 PM         CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.15         0.02         0.00         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 21                     SW 22        

DISPERSION                         44 GEN GOOD               27 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 20S. LIGHT

WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 19 TO 24. LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-012315-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

513 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      17-22 (-4)   22-27 (-11)  13-18        32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      59-64 (-37)  33-38 (-11)  62-67        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           30           0            50           

PRECIP DURATION       4            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          9 PM         CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.02         0.00         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4500                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 26                     W 20         

DISPERSION                         38 FAIR                   13 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 30S TO MID 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 18 TO 25. LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-012315-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

513 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      18-23 (-4)   26-31 (-9)   14-19        36-41        

RH % (24H TREND)      58-63 (-32)  31-36 (-11)  60-65        36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           30           0            40           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          9 PM         CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.14         0.02         0.00         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4500                      3900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 21                     SW 21        

DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   13 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 30S TO MID 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 19 TO 27. LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER

50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-012315-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

513 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      21-26 (-5)   29-34 (-10)  16-21        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      56-61 (-29)  30-35 (-9)   63-68        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          9 PM                                   1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                             CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.14         0.00         0.00         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 20                     SW 17        

DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   22 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-012315-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

513 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      21-26 (-4)   29-34 (-10)  15-20        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      57-62 (-31)  32-37 (-8)   68-73        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           20           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          9 PM         CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.01         0.00         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 24                     SW 16        

DISPERSION                         41 GEN GOOD               17 GEN POOR  

MAX LVORI                          1                         3            



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-012315-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

513 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      19-24 (-8)   25-30 (-12)  15-20        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      57-62 (-33)  33-38 (-9)   62-67        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           20           0            50           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          9 PM         CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.01         0.00         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      3400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 20                      SW 18        

DISPERSION                         46 GEN GOOD               30 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 30S TO MID 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 19 TO 26. LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-012315-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

513 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      19-24 (-9)   27-32 (-12)  16-21        37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      58-63 (-21)  30-35 (-11)  62-67        37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           0            0            50           

PRECIP DURATION       3                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          9 PM                                   1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                             CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.10         0.00         0.00         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      3300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 17                     SW 20        

DISPERSION                         39 FAIR                   35 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-012315-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

513 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013 /413 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013/



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      22-27 (-7)   31-36 (-11)  18-23        41-46        

RH % (24H TREND)      52-57 (-21)  29-34 (-9)   61-66        36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          9 PM                                   1 PM         

PRECIP END            7 AM                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.00         0.00         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 17                     SW 18        

DISPERSION                         37 FAIR                   31 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LIGHT

WINDS. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LIGHT

WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$

















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