

913 

FNUS54 KMRX 311947

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

245 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



.DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN 

REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW 

ACCUMULATIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE 

REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OR SNOW 

SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT A GRADUAL 

WARMING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-012045-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

245 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      17-22 (-8)   21-26 (-12)  13-18        31-36        

RH % (24H TREND)      62-67 (-33)  37-42 (-10)  64-69        45-50        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 12 G20                 SW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 12 G21    W  9 G17     LGT/VAR      SW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           30           0            60           

PRECIP DURATION       6            1                         2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.15         0.02         0.00         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 21                     SW 22        

DISPERSION                         44 GEN GOOD               27 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 19 TO 24. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN 

THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-012045-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

245 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      17-22 (-4)   22-27 (-11)  13-18        32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      59-64 (-37)  33-38 (-11)  62-67        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 15 G30                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 14 G30     W 11 G23     W  5         SW  8 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           30           0            50           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.02         0.00         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4500                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 26                     W 20         

DISPERSION                         38 FAIR                   12 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 18 TO 25. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 

MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-012045-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

245 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      18-23 (-4)   26-31 (-9)   14-19        36-41        

RH % (24H TREND)      58-63 (-32)  31-36 (-11)  60-65        36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 10 G24                 SW  5 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 15 G37    NW  7 G17    LGT/VAR      SW 10 G22    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           0            40           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.14         0.02         0.00         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4500                      3900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 21                     SW 21        

DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   13 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 

15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 

TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO

LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN 

THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 

MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-012045-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

245 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      21-26 (-5)   29-34 (-10)  16-21        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      56-61 (-29)  30-35 (-9)   63-68        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 10 G20                 S  5 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 10 G27    NW  5        LGT/VAR      SW 10 G19    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                   1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                             CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.14         0.00         0.00         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 20                     SW 17        

DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   22 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 

40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-012045-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

245 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      21-26 (-4)   29-34 (-10)  15-20        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      57-62 (-31)  32-37 (-8)   68-73        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 12 G23                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G23    NW  8 G17    LGT/VAR      SW  7 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.01         0.00         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 24                     SW 16        

DISPERSION                         41 GEN GOOD               17 GEN POOR  

MAX LVORI                          1                         3            



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 

40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-012045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

245 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      19-24 (-8)   25-30 (-12)  15-20        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      57-62 (-33)  33-38 (-9)   62-67        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 11 G20                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 10 G24    W  8 G18     LGT/VAR      SW  7 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS NONE         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           20           0            50           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.01         0.00         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      3400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 20                      SW 18        

DISPERSION                         46 GEN GOOD               30 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 20 TO 26. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 

40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN 

THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-012045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

245 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      19-24 (-9)   27-32 (-12)  16-21        37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      58-63 (-21)  30-35 (-11)  62-67        37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  8 G16                 SW  5 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G22    W  5         LGT/VAR      SW 10 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           0            0            50           

PRECIP DURATION       3                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                   1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                             CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.10         0.00         0.00         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      3300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 17                     SW 20        

DISPERSION                         39 FAIR                   35 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 

40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RANI SHOWERS. LOWS IN 

THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-012045-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

245 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013 /145 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013/



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      22-27 (-7)   31-36 (-11)  18-23        41-46        

RH % (24H TREND)      52-57 (-21)  29-34 (-9)   61-66        36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  9 G18                 S  5 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G21    NW  5        LGT/VAR      SW 10 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                   1 PM         

PRECIP END            7 AM                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.00         0.00         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 17                     SW 18        

DISPERSION                         37 FAIR                   31 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN 

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. NORTH 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

40S TO MID 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$







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