

825 

FNUS54 KMRX 162058

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

358 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013



.DISCUSSION...

AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 

APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS 

EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SNOW 

FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL MAY PERSIST 

OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING 

ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE FOR THE 

WEEKEND. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-172200-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

358 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      33-38 (-3)   36-41 (-12)  18-23        34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (-5)   58-63 (-14)  80-85        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NE  8                     NW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NE 11 G21    N 10 G21     LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           100          50           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            7            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         1.10         0.04         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NE 17                     N 16         

DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               24 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER

30S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 16.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 18.

HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-172200-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

358 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      32-37 (-9)   35-40 (-17)  17-22        34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (-2)   62-67 (-5)   80-85        34-39        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NE  7                     NW  7 G17    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NE 11 G22    N 12 G24     LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           100          80           0            

PRECIP DURATION       5            8            2                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   4 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.25         1.46         0.10         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                      3700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 14                     NE 10        

DISPERSION                         5 VERY POOR               10 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 18 TO 23. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-172200-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

358 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      33-38 (-9)   35-40 (-14)  18-23        38-43        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   64-69 (-10)  78-83        19-24        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NE  9 G16                 NE  7 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NE 13 G27    N 12 G28     LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           100          80           0            

PRECIP DURATION       5            8            2                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   4 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.34         1.52         0.06         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3600                      3900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                E 18                      NE 15        

DISPERSION                         8 POOR                    11 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 16 TO 26. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-172200-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

358 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (-5)   39-44 (-9)   21-26        43-48        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-3)  62-67 (-9)   74-79        19-24        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  N  9                      N  9 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      N 13 G26     N 11 G24     N  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      RAIN         SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           100          60           0            

PRECIP DURATION       5            8            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.41         1.31         0.04         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                E 17                      N 21         

DISPERSION                         14 GEN POOR               21 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 26. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S

TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 20S

TO UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-172200-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

358 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      41-46 (-5)   41-46 (-12)  21-26        45-50        

RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (-5)   63-68 (-3)   73-78        16-21        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NE  8                     N  8 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      N 12 G23     N 10 G21     N  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      RAIN         SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           100          70           0            

PRECIP DURATION       5            8            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   4 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.50         1.40         0.07         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 18                     NE 12        

DISPERSION                         10 POOR                   10 POOR      

MAX LVORI                          4                         3            



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 24. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-172200-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

358 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (-4)   37-42 (-12)  19-24        37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-3)  61-66 (-13)  78-83        37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NE  8 G15                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NE 11 G20    N  9 G20     LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           100          60           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            8            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   4 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.22         1.31         0.05         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2700                      3300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NE 21                     NE 17        

DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   26 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 18 TO 26. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-172200-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

358 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (-2)   37-42 (-7)   20-25        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (-3)   59-64 (-19)  81-86        37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NE  9 G18                 N  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      N 13 G23     N 10 G22     LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           90           40           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.21         1.05         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NE 25                     N 22         

DISPERSION                         35 FAIR                   37 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-172200-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

358 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 /258 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013/



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (-2)   38-43 (-8)   23-28        42-47        

RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (-6)   62-67 (-10)  75-80        31-36        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NE 10 G19                 N  7 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      N 14 G25     N 11 G22     LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      RAIN         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           100          0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       5            5                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING                             

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.32         0.96         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NE 31                     N 29         

DISPERSION                         44 GEN GOOD               47 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$













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