

610 

FNUS54 KMRX 160832

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

600 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013



.DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL 

BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING...BUT ANOTHER 

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION 

IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE 

ON THURSDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND 

NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 

FRIDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-170930-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

600 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+6)   32-37 (-4)   38-43        

RH % (24H TREND)      76-81 (-4)   95-100 (-2)  61-66        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   N  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      N  8         

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           90           

PRECIP DURATION       5            5            6            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.39         0.16         0.84         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2500                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 22                      N 16         

DISPERSION            8 POOR                    24 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 

AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 18. 

HIGHS IN THE 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO 

LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-170930-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

600 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+5)   30-35 (-11)  37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      71-76 (-9)   95-100 (+2)  63-68        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   N  7 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      N  9 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           100          

PRECIP DURATION       5            5            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.40         0.33         1.58         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2900                      3700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 24                     NE 10        

DISPERSION            3 VERY POOR               9 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 19 TO 

25. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 

17. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 

MID 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-170930-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

600 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+5)   31-36 (-11)  37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      72-77 (-6)   95-100 (+1)  69-74        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  6 G16                  NE  9 G19    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      N 10 G20     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          100          

PRECIP DURATION       5            5            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.38         0.60         1.39         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3200                      3900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 21                     NE 15        

DISPERSION            2 VERY POOR               11 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 19 TO 

26. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO 

UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

TEENS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 

MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE TEENS. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO 

UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-170930-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

600 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (+5)   36-41 (-7)   41-46        

RH % (24H TREND)      66-71 (-11)  95-100 (-2)  68-73        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   N  9 G21     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      N 12 G23     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          100          

PRECIP DURATION       4            5            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.37         0.72         1.11         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2500                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 15                     N 21         

DISPERSION            5 VERY POOR               20 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER TO MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. 

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 

MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE 30S. 

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-170930-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

600 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+7)   38-43 (-8)   42-47        

RH % (24H TREND)      62-67 (-15)  95-100 (+1)  68-73        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   N  7 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      N 11 G20     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          100          

PRECIP DURATION       4            5            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.33         0.68         1.35         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2900                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 22                     NE 12        

DISPERSION            10 POOR                   10 POOR      

MAX LVORI             6                         5            



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 

IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. 

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO 

LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE 30S. 

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-170930-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

600 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+5)   35-40 (-5)   40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      74-79 (-6)   95-100 (-1)  65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   N  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      N  6         

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           100          

PRECIP DURATION       5            5            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.40         0.31         1.23         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    1900                      3300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 17                      NE 17        

DISPERSION            5 VERY POOR               26 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 18 TO 

25. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S 

TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 

19. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 

MID 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-170930-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

600 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+3)   33-38 (-3)   38-43        

RH % (24H TREND)      75-80 (-4)   93-98 (-4)   60-65        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   N  9 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      N  9 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           90           

PRECIP DURATION       5            5            6            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.38         0.40         0.77         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2500                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 13                      N 22         

DISPERSION            13 GEN POOR               37 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. 

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. 

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 

20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE 30S. WEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-170930-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

600 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013 /500 AM CST WED JAN 16 2013/



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (+4)   34-39 (-3)   39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      67-72 (-11)  89-94 (-8)   58-63        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   N 12 G26     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      N 14 G27     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          90           

PRECIP DURATION       3            5            7            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.43         0.67         0.61         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2300                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 10                      N 29         

DISPERSION            10 POOR                   47 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 

15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S 

TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 

TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO 

LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$







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