

419 

FNUS54 KMRX 160215 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

915 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013



.DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL 

FINALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF 

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY 

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT LOW 

PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON 

THURSDAY. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-170400-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

915 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (+4)   46-51 (+5)   28-33        38-43        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   55-60 (-25)  83-88        46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  6        LGT/VAR      N  5         

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           20           40           

PRECIP DURATION       8            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.94         0.17         0.01         0.06         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2900                      2800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 22                      NW 16        

DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               11 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN

THE LOWER TO MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER.

LOWS AROUND 13. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-170400-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

915 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      41-46 (+4)   47-52 (+3)   28-33        37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  52-57 (-28)  93-98        50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         LGT/VAR      N  6         

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           30           60           

PRECIP DURATION       8            2            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.55         0.15         0.04         0.21         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 23                      NW 18        

DISPERSION                         8 POOR                    5 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 20S.

NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER.

LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-170400-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

915 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      41-46 (+4)   46-51 (+2)   29-34        36-41        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   55-60 (-23)  91-96        54-59        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NE  7 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         LGT/VAR      NE  7 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           50           70           

PRECIP DURATION       8            2            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.48         0.16         0.06         0.28         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 21                      N 14         

DISPERSION                         7 POOR                    5 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 20S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER.

LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-170400-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

915 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+5)   49-54 (+2)   31-36        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+2)  56-61 (-21)  90-95        52-57        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NE  8 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  5        LGT/VAR      N  9 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           60           80           

PRECIP DURATION       8            2            2            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.44         0.16         0.10         0.39         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2700                      2600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 17                      N 20         

DISPERSION                         9 POOR                    9 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 20S.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE MID

20S TO UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-170400-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

915 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (+5)   50-55 (0)    30-35        40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  53-58 (-24)  95-100       55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      N  8         

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           60           80           

PRECIP DURATION       8            2            2            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.40         0.15         0.07         0.62         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      2700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 22                      N 17         

DISPERSION                         10 POOR                   7 POOR       

MAX LVORI                          6                         7            



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 20S.

NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE 20S

TO UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-170400-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

915 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+4)   48-53 (+4)   30-35        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  55-60 (-25)  89-94        50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  5         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           30           50           

PRECIP DURATION       8            2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.73         0.16         0.03         0.09         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2900                      2800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 18                      N 14         

DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   15 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 20S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 28. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S

TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER.

LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-170400-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

915 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (+4)   46-51 (+4)   30-35        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+2)  56-61 (-23)  81-86        51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  5         LGT/VAR      N  5         

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          70           40           50           

PRECIP DURATION       8            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.89         0.15         0.04         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      2700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 16                      N 17         

DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   21 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 20S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE MID

20S TO UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-170400-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

915 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013 /815 PM CST TUE JAN 15 2013/



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (+3)   47-52 (+5)   32-37        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+2)  55-60 (-23)  75-80        53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  8 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  5        LGT/VAR      N  9 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         RAIN         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          70           60           70           

PRECIP DURATION       8            2            2            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.57         0.13         0.09         0.16         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2500                      2400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 13                      N 24         

DISPERSION                         15 GEN POOR               26 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN

THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE

AFTERNOON. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE

20S TO UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$













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