
243 
FNUS54 KMRX 011901
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL 
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY 
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION 
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE 
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL 
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE 
AREA ON TUESDAY BUT WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-022015-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
301 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (+6)   73-78 (+9)   54-59        66-71        
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  56-61 (-14)  95-100       53-58        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  7                     SW  6        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  8 G17    S 10 G18     LGT/VAR      SW  5        
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           50           10           0            
PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.21         0.08         0.01         0.00         
LAL                   5            3            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5300                      6000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 24                      SW 18        
DISPERSION                         69 GOOD                   65 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 50. WEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-022015-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
301 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (+6)   71-76 (+7)   55-60        63-68        
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  54-59 (-8)   92-97        50-55        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  8 G17                 LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 12 G25    S 10 G19     S  5         LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           60           20           0            
PRECIP DURATION       5            2            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.43         0.12         0.03         0.00         
LAL                   3            3            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5700                      6100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 29                      SW 13        
DISPERSION                         72 GOOD                   37 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-022015-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
301 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (+6)   68-73 (+4)   50-55        65-70        
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  55-60 (-16)  92-97        42-47        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G20                  SW  7 G16    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  9 G24    S 12 G23     S  5         W  5         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           60           20           0            
PRECIP DURATION       5            2            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.23         0.06         0.02         0.00         
LAL                   5            3            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6100                      6100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 30                      SW 15        
DISPERSION                         77 GOOD                   40 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S. LIGHT
WINDS. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
LIGHT WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-022015-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
301 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (+5)   71-76 (+4)   51-56        69-74        
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  55-60 (-16)  85-90        44-49        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G18                  SW  6        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  9 G20    S  9 G17     S  5         W  5         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           30           0            0            
PRECIP DURATION       4            1                                      
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                                   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.20         0.02         0.00         0.00         
LAL                   5            3            1            1            
LASI                               4                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      6100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 28                      SW 14        
DISPERSION                         90 GOOD                   49 GEN GOOD  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. LIGHT
WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-022015-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
301 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (+5)   71-76 (+5)   49-54        68-73        
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  54-59 (-19)  89-94        42-47        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G17                  LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7 G15    S 10 G19     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           40           0            0            
PRECIP DURATION       5            1                                      
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                                   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.35         0.03         0.00         0.00         
LAL                   5            3            1            1            
LASI                               3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      6100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 28                      W 13         
DISPERSION                         88 GOOD                   42 GEN GOOD  
MAX LVORI                          4                         4            

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 50. LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LIGHT WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-022015-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
301 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+6)   74-79 (+7)   53-58        68-73        
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  53-58 (-12)  95-100       50-55        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  6                     W  5         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  6        S 10         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           40           10           0            
PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.19         0.08         0.01         0.00         
LAL                   3            3            1            1            
LASI                               3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5600                      6000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 23                      SW 17        
DISPERSION                         82 GOOD                   68 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 50. WEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LIGHT WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-022015-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
301 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (+4)   73-78 (+6)   52-57        70-75        
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  54-59 (-16)  95-100       44-49        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  6                     SW  7        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5        SW  9        LGT/VAR      W  5         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           40           0            0            
PRECIP DURATION       4            1                                      
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                                   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.18         0.05         0.00         0.00         
LAL                   5            3            1            1            
LASI                               3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      6100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 23                      SW 18        
DISPERSION                         95 GOOD                   76 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LIGHT WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-022015-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
301 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012 /201 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012/

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      60-65 (+4)   72-77 (+3)   50-55        71-76        
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  53-58 (-20)  92-97        42-47        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  8 G16                  SW  5        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  8 G18    S  8         SW  5        SW  5        
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           30           0            0            
PRECIP DURATION       4            1                                      
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                                   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.20         0.03         0.00         0.00         
LAL                   5            3            1            1            
LASI                               3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      6100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 24                      SW 16        
DISPERSION                         101 VERY GOOD             70 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LIGHT WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND
50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

