
035 
FNUS54 KMRX 170125 AAA
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
925 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN 
REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AS IT DOES...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD 
ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL 
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 
PRECIPITATION. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AREAS OF 
HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN 
BY MIDWEEK. 


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-180230-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
925 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       
TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (+2)   71-76 (0)    58-63        67-72        
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  62-67 (+7)   94-99        64-69        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  8 G15     
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           90           100          80           
PRECIP DURATION       1            5            8            5            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.34         0.81         0.77         
LAL                   1            1            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      3800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 13                      SW 14        
DISPERSION                         26 FAIR                   21 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. EAST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-180230-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
925 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       
TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+5)   71-76 (+3)   57-62        67-72        
RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+5)   61-66 (+2)   95-100       61-66        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  8 G17     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  5        SW  9 G18    
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           90           100          80           
PRECIP DURATION       1            5            8            5            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.49         0.88         0.95         
LAL                   1            1            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      3900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 10                      SW 23        
DISPERSION                         10 POOR                   21 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP
TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-180230-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
925 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       
TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (+6)   71-76 (+2)   58-63        66-71        
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+2)   57-62 (-3)   88-93        64-69        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  7 G16    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  9 G17    
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           90           100          80           
PRECIP DURATION       1            5            8            5            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.55         0.96         0.86         
LAL                   2            2            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      4200         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S  9                      W 15         
DISPERSION                         9 POOR                    14 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-180230-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
925 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      60-65 (+6)   73-78 (-3)   62-67        69-74        
RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (+6)   59-64 (+10)  87-92        60-65        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  6        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  8 G15    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           90           100          80           
PRECIP DURATION       1            5            8            5            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.93         1.08         0.92         
LAL                   2            2            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4100                      3900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 10                      NW 10        
DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               16 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-180230-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
925 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       
TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (+5)   72-77 (-4)   61-66        68-73        
RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (+6)   59-64 (+9)   91-96        64-69        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  6         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  8        
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           90           100          90           
PRECIP DURATION       1            5            8            5            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.89         1.07         0.89         
LAL                   2            2            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      3900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 10                      SW 13        
DISPERSION                         15 GEN POOR               17 GEN POOR  
MAX LVORI                          4                         4            

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-180230-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
925 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       
TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+3)   73-78 (0)    59-64        69-74        
RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (+7)   62-67 (+9)   91-96        61-66        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  8 G15    
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           90           100          80           
PRECIP DURATION       1            5            8            5            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.42         0.84         0.81         
LAL                   1            1            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3300                      3800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 10                      W 14         
DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               28 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP
TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. EAST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-180230-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
925 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (+2)   73-78 (-2)   61-66        70-75        
RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (+8)   62-67 (+12)  88-93        60-65        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  7        
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           90           100          70           
PRECIP DURATION       1            5            8            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.54         1.11         0.67         
LAL                   2            2            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      3800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 10                      NW 13        
DISPERSION                         19 GEN POOR               28 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS NEAR 70. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S.
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-180230-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
925 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012 /825 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012/

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (+4)   75-80 (-2)   63-68        71-76        
RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (+4)   60-65 (+11)  87-92        58-63        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  5 G15     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  9 G16    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           90           100          70           
PRECIP DURATION       1            5            8            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         1.04         1.27         0.73         
LAL                   2            2            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      3900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 10                      NW 16        
DISPERSION                         23 FAIR                   38 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 50. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

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