
844 
FNUS54 KMRX 211923
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
323 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT...AND INTO TUESDAY. THE 
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN 
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.  

VAZ001-002-005-006-008-222030-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (+1)   73-78 (-5)   52-57        71-76        
RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (+6)   47-52 (+11)  95-100       51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           60           50           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            2            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.28         0.14         0.11         
LAL                   3            4            3            3            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5500                      5600         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW  3                     SW  7        
DISPERSION                         11 POOR                   21 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-222030-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+1)   73-78 (-3)   50-55        69-74        
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+9)   45-50 (+8)   95-100       50-55        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           60           50           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            2            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.29         0.16         0.11         
LAL                   3            4            3            3            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6500                      6000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE  3                     SW  7        
DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   18 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 50S. EAST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. NORTHWEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER
80S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-222030-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (+2)   73-78 (-1)   51-56        73-78        
RH % (24H TREND)      80-85 (-5)   39-44 (-4)   89-94        40-45        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           60           50           30           
PRECIP DURATION       1            2            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.14         0.36         0.11         0.04         
LAL                   3            4            3            3            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7000                      6700         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NE  6                     SW  5        
DISPERSION                         19 GEN POOR               14 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 90S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 90S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-222030-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (+3)   77-82 (-1)   52-57        76-81        
RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (-1)   42-47 (0)    91-96        41-46        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  6                     LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  6        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           50           30           20           
PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.30         0.08         0.02         
LAL                   3            4            3            3            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7200                      6600         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N 12                      SW  3        
DISPERSION                         50 GEN GOOD               15 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 50S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LIGHT WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-222030-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (+4)   77-82 (-1)   52-57        76-81        
RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (-6)   40-45 (-2)   88-93        39-44        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  7        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           40           30           30           
PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.28         0.09         0.02         
LAL                   3            3            3            3            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 8100                      7300         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW  8                     SW  6        
DISPERSION                         40 FAIR                   25 FAIR      
MAX LVORI                          3                         4            

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT
WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LIGHT WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 90S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-222030-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      54-59 (+3)   75-80 (-5)   52-57        73-78        
RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (+7)   46-51 (+9)   93-98        47-52        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           60           50           30           
PRECIP DURATION       1            2            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.32         0.13         0.09         
LAL                   3            4            3            3            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5000                      4600         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NE  3                     W  5         
DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   14 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LIGHT WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-222030-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+2)   77-82 (-2)   53-58        76-81        
RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (-2)   44-49 (+3)   90-95        44-49        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           30           30           30           
PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.16         0.30         0.06         0.03         
LAL                   3            4            3            3            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      5200         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  9                      SW  3        
DISPERSION                         35 FAIR                   13 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT
WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LIGHT WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S
TO MID 90S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-222030-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012 /223 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012/

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+1)   77-82 (-2)   53-58        78-83        
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-6)   43-48 (+1)   91-96        38-43        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  5                     LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  6        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           30           20           20           
PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.15         0.15         0.03         0.02         
LAL                   3            3            3            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      6500         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 10                     SW  3        
DISPERSION                         43 GEN GOOD               19 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT
WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS NEAR 90.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S.
SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

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