
179 
FNUS54 KMRX 221206 AAA
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
706 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PULL MILD AND 
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...DURING THE 
MORNING WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AS THE FIRST SYSTEM APPROACHES. A SECOND FEATURE 
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING. SOME OF THE 
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE BROUGHT DOWN 
TO THE SURFACE. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. 
THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 
THURSDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-231315-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
706 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (+7)   42-47 (+9)   65-70        
RH % (24H TREND)      52-57 (+2)   87-92 (+12)  36-41        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S  7 G20                  SW 10 G20    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 13 G23    SW  8 G19    SW 11 G19    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           40           0            
PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          10 AM        CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.20         0.09         0.00         
LAL                   4            3            1            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5600                      5800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 32                     SW 28        
DISPERSION            99 GOOD                   91 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-231315-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
706 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (+8)   44-49 (+12)  61-66        
RH % (24H TREND)      46-51 (-4)   79-84 (+5)   37-42        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW 10 G23                 W 12 G21     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 12 G24    W  9 G20     SW 11 G21    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           50           0            
PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          10 AM        CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.22         0.28         0.00         
LAL                   4            3            1            
LASI                  4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5600                      6800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 32                      W 30         
DISPERSION            78 GOOD                   103 VERY GOOD

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-231315-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
706 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (+8)   44-49 (+12)  59-64        
RH % (24H TREND)      47-52 (-2)   76-81 (0)    36-41        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW 13 G27                 SW 13 G27    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 14 G28    SW 13 G28    SW 14 G29    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           40           0            
PRECIP DURATION       3            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.22         0.22         0.00         
LAL                   4            3            1            
LASI                  3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5800                      6800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 35                     SW 30        
DISPERSION            82 GOOD                   96 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
40S TO 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. WEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-231315-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
706 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      60-65 (+6)   45-50 (+12)  66-71        
RH % (24H TREND)      50-55 (-1)   85-90 (+9)   35-40        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW 11 G23                 SW 10 G20    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 12 G23    SW 11 G23    SW 14 G27    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           40           0            
PRECIP DURATION       3            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.22         0.16         0.00         
LAL                   4            3            1            
LASI                  3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5800                      6100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 32                     SW 25        
DISPERSION            101 VERY GOOD             89 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.
EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS
IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-231315-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
706 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (+5)   44-49 (+12)  65-70        
RH % (24H TREND)      55-60 (+2)   87-92 (+8)   34-39        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  9 G19                 SW  9 G17    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 13 G22    SW 11 G22    SW 12 G23    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           40           0            
PRECIP DURATION       3            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.15         0.17         0.00         
LAL                   4            3            1            
LASI                  3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5900                      6900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 31                     SW 26        
DISPERSION            98 GOOD                   108 VERY GOOD
MAX LVORI             4                         3            

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. EAST
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS
IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-231315-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
706 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+5)   44-49 (+11)  67-72        
RH % (24H TREND)      51-56 (+4)   84-89 (+8)   34-39        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  7 G20                 SW 10 G19    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 12 G22    SW  8 G17    SW 11 G20    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           40           0            
PRECIP DURATION       2            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          10 AM        CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.27         0.14         0.00         
LAL                   4            3            1            
LASI                  4                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5500                      5000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 32                     SW 26        
DISPERSION            112 VERY GOOD             80 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS NEAR 50.
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-231315-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
706 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (+5)   46-51 (+12)  67-72        
RH % (24H TREND)      55-60 (+6)   82-87 (+7)   36-41        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  9 G20                 SW 10 G18    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 11 G20    SW  8 G17    SW 13 G23    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           40           10           
PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   3 PM         
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   4 AM         CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.29         0.07         0.01         
LAL                   4            3            1            
LASI                  3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5700                      5100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 33                     SW 26        
DISPERSION            128 VERY GOOD             87 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH
COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S. EAST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-231315-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
706 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012 /606 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012/

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (+6)   48-53 (+13)  68-73        
RH % (24H TREND)      53-58 (+4)   83-88 (+7)   36-41        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW 10 G21                 SW  9 G16    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 11 G20    SW  8 G17    S 13 G25     
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           40           0            
PRECIP DURATION       3            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   4 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.31         0.09         0.00         
LAL                   4            3            1            
LASI                  3                         5            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5600                      5500         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 32                     SW 25        
DISPERSION            124 VERY GOOD             94 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

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