
557 
FNUS54 KMRX 182016
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE 
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL 
TO THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW ON 
SUNDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE CHANGE OVER OCCURRING 
LATER IN THE VALLEYS TOWARDS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON 
SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY 
MORNING.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-192115-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (-1)   38-43 (-18)  20-25        43-48        
RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+20)  72-77 (+40)  86-91        37-42        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  E 12 G21                  LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NE  6        NE 11 G21    N  9 G19     LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SNOW/SLEET   SNOW         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          70           0            
PRECIP DURATION       3            8            2                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.83         0.13         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      3200         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                E 22                      NE  8        
DISPERSION                         25 FAIR                   8 POOR       

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN 
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 
30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S. 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTH 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-192115-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (-2)   38-43 (-16)  20-25        41-46        
RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+22)  72-77 (+37)  81-86        39-44        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE 16 G32                 LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      E 10 G22     N  8 G18     LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          70           0            
PRECIP DURATION       3            8            2                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.18         0.54         0.09         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      3200         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 23                     N  8         
DISPERSION                         14 GEN POOR               3 VERY POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN 
THE 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 
30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 
20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. 
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-192115-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (-2)   40-45 (-14)  22-27        43-48        
RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+22)  70-75 (+31)  82-87        41-46        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE 13 G31                 NE  5        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  7 G18     N 10 G21     LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          50           0            
PRECIP DURATION       4            8            2                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.26         0.71         0.05         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      3500         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 22                      NE  7        
DISPERSION                         6 VERY POOR               2 VERY POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. SOUTH 
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN 
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 
MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 
MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTH 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-192115-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (0)    43-48 (-15)  24-29        47-52        
RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+13)  71-76 (+30)  82-87        37-42        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE 11 G24                 N  5         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  9 G19     N 12 G23     LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          30           0            
PRECIP DURATION       4            8            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   3 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.34         0.67         0.03         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3100                      2800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 21                      NE  7        
DISPERSION                         18 GEN POOR               5 VERY POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN 
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 
TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 
MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO 
LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-192115-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      39-44 (+2)   42-47 (-15)  23-28        46-51        
RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+6)   70-75 (+28)  82-87        37-42        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE 15 G27                 LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  8 G21    NW 12 G23    LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          40           0            
PRECIP DURATION       4            8            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   3 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.42         0.61         0.03         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3300                      3200         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 23                      NE  6        
DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   5 VERY POOR  
MAX LVORI                          5                         5            

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 30. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 
10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN 
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 
TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 
MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 
TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-192115-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (0)    41-46 (-17)  22-27        45-50        
RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+16)  71-76 (+35)  84-89        37-42        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  E 12 G21                  LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NE  6 G15    NE 10 G21    N  9 G19     LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          60           0            
PRECIP DURATION       3            8            2                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.15         0.71         0.09         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2700                      2700         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 22                     NE  7        
DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   7 POOR       

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EAST 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN 
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S. 
SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 
20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. 
NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-192115-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      39-44 (0)    42-47 (-17)  24-29        47-52        
RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+17)  72-77 (+37)  85-90        36-41        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NE  9 G21                 NE  5        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NE  6 G16    N 12 G23     N 11 G23     NE  5        
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          50           0            
PRECIP DURATION       4            8            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   3 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.21         0.97         0.05         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      2800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                E 17                      NE  9        
DISPERSION                         23 FAIR                   12 POOR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS NEAR 
40. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 
TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 
10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. 
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 
TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-192115-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
315 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012 /215 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012/

                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      41-46 (+3)   44-49 (-16)  25-30        50-55        
RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+11)  73-78 (+36)  82-87        35-40        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NE  7 G16                 NE  7        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      N 13 G27     N 12 G26     LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          20           0            
PRECIP DURATION       4            8            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   11 PM                     
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.36         0.76         0.01         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3300                      2800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                E 12                      NE 10        
DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   15 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 
MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 
MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS 
AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 60. 
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS NEAR 60. WEST WINDS 
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. 
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 
40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

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