
915 
FNUS54 KMRX 162022
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT 
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.  A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
GULF COAST STATES THIS WEEKEND SPREADING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA 
SATURDAY.  THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-172130-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
322 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (-3)   52-57 (0)    30-35        50-55        
RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+15)  38-43 (-22)  87-92        49-54        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  5        NW  6        LGT/VAR      SW  6        
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            50           
PRECIP DURATION                                              1            
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 10 AM        
PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.09         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               4                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      4900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 15                     SW 12        
DISPERSION                         42 GEN GOOD               29 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 40.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP
TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-172130-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
322 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (-2)   51-56 (0)    30-35        49-54        
RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+15)  39-44 (-20)  88-93        51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  6 G15                 S  6         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  8 G17    NW  7        LGT/VAR      SW  5        
PRECIP TYPE           DRIZZLE      NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            60           
PRECIP DURATION                                              1            
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 10 AM        
PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.12         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               4                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5700                      4900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 17                     SW 12        
DISPERSION                         44 GEN GOOD               22 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S. EAST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
COLDER. LOWS 19 TO 25. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-172130-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
322 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (-2)   54-59 (+1)   32-37        50-55        
RH % (24H TREND)      82-87 (+3)   27-32 (-34)  86-91        53-58        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  5         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  5        N  5         LGT/VAR      SW  5        
PRECIP TYPE           DRIZZLE      NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            80           
PRECIP DURATION                                              3            
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 7 AM         
PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.18         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               5                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5200                      4900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 10                     SW 10        
DISPERSION                         18 GEN POOR               16 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. EAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
COLDER. LOWS 18 TO 26. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-172130-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
322 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (-3)   59-64 (+2)   35-40        51-56        
RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (0)    29-34 (-40)  88-93        55-60        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  N  5                      SE  5        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     N  5         N  6         LGT/VAR      SE  6        
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            90           
PRECIP DURATION                                              3            
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 7 AM         
PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.26         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4600                      4400         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N 12                      S 13         
DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   25 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. EAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-172130-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
322 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (-3)   61-66 (+4)   36-41        51-56        
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (0)    25-30 (-45)  92-97        56-61        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  6        
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            90           
PRECIP DURATION                                              3            
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 7 AM         
PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.27         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5600                      4800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N 12                      S 12         
DISPERSION                         32 FAIR                   27 FAIR      
MAX LVORI                          3                         4            

REMARKS...NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. EAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-172130-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
322 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (-3)   55-60 (0)    32-37        51-56        
RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+12)  38-43 (-24)  87-92        52-57        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            60           
PRECIP DURATION                                              1            
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 10 AM        
PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.12         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               4                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4900                      4600         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 10                     SW 10        
DISPERSION                         31 FAIR                   27 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP
TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP
TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-172130-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
322 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (-3)   56-61 (-1)   33-38        52-57        
RH % (24H TREND)      83-88 (+2)   38-43 (-21)  86-91        53-58        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  5        
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            60           
PRECIP DURATION                                              2            
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 7 AM         
PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.16         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4100                      4500         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  9                      SW 10        
DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   28 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND
40. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-172130-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
322 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012 /222 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012/

                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      39-44 (-3)   59-64 (0)    36-41        53-58        
RH % (24H TREND)      83-88 (-4)   32-37 (-26)  89-94        54-59        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  N  5                      LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  6        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  5        
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            80           
PRECIP DURATION                                              3            
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 7 AM         
PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.27         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      4100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  9                      S 12         
DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   28 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS NEAR 40. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. 

$$

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