
813 
FNUS54 KMRX 162005
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
EASTWARD SPREADING RAINFALL AND BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF 
THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER THAN 
NORMAL TEMPERATUES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MILD 
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-172115-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
305 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (+13)  53-58 (+7)   26-31        32-37        
RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (+11)  58-63 (+19)  81-86        41-46        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 12 G25                 N  6         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  9 G19     SW 12 G23    W 10 G18     LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           80           60           0            
PRECIP DURATION       1            8            2                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.18         0.25         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                                      
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                                   
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 43                     N/A          
DISPERSION                         36 FAIR                   0 VERY POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 23. NORTHEAST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. WEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-172115-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
305 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      32-37 (+10)  51-56 (+8)   25-30        32-37        
RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (+13)  59-64 (+18)  84-89        39-44        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 14 G29                 NW  7 G15    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 12 G23     SW 13 G27    W 11 G20     LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           80           70           20           
PRECIP DURATION       1            8            2            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   11 AM        
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.12         0.28         0.01         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                                      
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3100                                   
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 43                     N/A          
DISPERSION                         13 GEN POOR               0 VERY POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 22. SOUTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-172115-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
305 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (+6)   51-56 (+7)   26-31        35-40        
RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (+16)  61-66 (+25)  87-92        23-28        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 16 G33                 N  6         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 15 G29     SW 15 G31    W 12 G25     LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           70           50           20           
PRECIP DURATION       1            3            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   11 AM        
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.21         0.40         0.01         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                                      
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                                   
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 43                     N/A          
DISPERSION                         15 GEN POOR               0 VERY POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 15 TO 23. SOUTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.
WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 19 TO 29. WEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-172115-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
305 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (+8)   55-60 (+7)   28-33        42-47        
RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+20)  60-65 (+24)  86-91        22-27        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 13 G24                  N  8         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 12 G24     SW 12 G23    W 11 G21     LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           70           40           0            
PRECIP DURATION       1            3            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.25         0.52         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                                      
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                                   
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 37                     N/A          
DISPERSION                         28 FAIR                   0 VERY POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 18 TO 24. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-172115-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
305 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (+10)  55-60 (+6)   28-33        42-47        
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+18)  59-64 (+24)  86-91        19-24        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 10 G20                  N  6         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G19     SW 10 G18    W  9 G18     NW  5        
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           70           40           0            
PRECIP DURATION       1            3            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.23         0.52         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                                      
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                                   
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 36                     N/A          
DISPERSION                         27 FAIR                   0 VERY POOR  
MAX LVORI                          4                         4            

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 24. WEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LIGHT WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 50.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS NEAR 60.
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. HIGHS NEAR 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-172115-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
305 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (+13)  55-60 (+8)   28-33        35-40        
RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (+7)   57-62 (+18)  82-87        39-44        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 10 G22                 LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G17     SW 12 G23    W 10 G19     LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           80           50           0            
PRECIP DURATION       1            8            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.18         0.29         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                                      
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2600                                   
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 40                     N/A          
DISPERSION                         40 FAIR                   0 VERY POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 23. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-172115-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
305 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (+12)  56-61 (+8)   28-33        38-43        
RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+18)  59-64 (+21)  85-90        33-38        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 13 G23                 N  6         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G20     SW 12 G22    NW 10 G19    LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           70           30           0            
PRECIP DURATION       1            3            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   4 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.28         0.25         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                                      
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2600                                   
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 41                     N/A          
DISPERSION                         48 GEN GOOD               0 VERY POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 19 TO 24. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-172115-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
305 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012 /205 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       
TEMP (24H TREND)      39-44 (+11)  58-63 (+8)   29-34        40-45        
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+19)  59-64 (+22)  86-91        28-33        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 12 G21                  N  7 G15     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 11 G21     SW 11 G20    NW 11 G20    LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           70           30           0            
PRECIP DURATION       1            3            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   4 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.31         0.36         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                                      
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2500                                   
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 38                     N/A          
DISPERSION                         44 GEN GOOD               0 VERY POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 30. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

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