
245 
FNUS54 KMRX 210816
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
600 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN 
REGION TODAY...BUT WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN 
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER BY 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-220845-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
600 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (+2)   52-57 (0)    68-73        
RH % (24H TREND)      62-67 (+10)  91-96 (-2)   53-58        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   S  8 G18     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S 11 G20     
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           50           50           
PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.05         0.08         
LAL                   3            3            4            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3900                      5200         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 15                      SW 31        
DISPERSION            23 FAIR                   86 GOOD      

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW AREAS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 
MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 
TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTH WINDS 
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-220845-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
600 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      64-69 (0)    51-56 (0)    66-71        
RH % (24H TREND)      63-68 (+12)  91-96 (-2)   53-58        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  6 G15                  SW  8 G16    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S 10 G21     
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           40           50           
PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.04         0.04         
LAL                   3            3            3            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3800                      4900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 17                      SW 29        
DISPERSION            15 GEN POOR               55 GEN GOOD  

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW AREAS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 
MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 
TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO 
LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS 
THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-220845-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
600 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      63-68 (+1)   50-55 (0)    65-70        
RH % (24H TREND)      63-68 (+4)   92-97 (-1)   49-54        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  6 G16                  SW 13 G25    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  5 G17     SW 14 G26    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           40           
PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.04         0.02         
LAL                   3            3            3            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4100                      5200         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 14                      SW 31        
DISPERSION            12 POOR                   56 GEN GOOD  

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW AREAS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO 
MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S 
TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 
40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO 
MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS 
IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COOLER. 
LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 
10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-220845-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
600 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (+1)   52-57 (0)    70-75        
RH % (24H TREND)      63-68 (0)    90-95 (-3)   47-52        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   S 11 G22     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SE  5 G15    SW 13 G24    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           40           
PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.04         0.02         
LAL                   3            3            3            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3700                      5100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 12                     SW 30        
DISPERSION            17 GEN POOR               79 GOOD      

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW AREAS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 
MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 
MID 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S 
TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-220845-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
600 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (0)    51-56 (0)    70-75        
RH % (24H TREND)      61-66 (0)    90-95 (-3)   45-50        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   S  9 G19     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S 12 G21     
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.03         0.02         
LAL                   3            3            3            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4000                      5500         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 12                      SW 29        
DISPERSION            17 GEN POOR               81 GOOD      
MAX LVORI             5                         4            

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW AREAS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 
MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 
MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 
30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-220845-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
600 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      66-71 (0)    53-58 (0)    70-75        
RH % (24H TREND)      62-67 (+8)   90-95 (-4)   48-53        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   S  6 G15     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  9 G18    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           40           50           
PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.10         0.04         0.03         
LAL                   3            3            3            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3400                      4600         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 13                      SW 30        
DISPERSION            22 FAIR                   79 GOOD      

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW AREAS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 
MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S 
TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTHWEST 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-220845-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
600 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      66-71 (+3)   54-59 (0)    69-74        
RH % (24H TREND)      62-67 (+4)   92-97 (-1)   51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   SW  9 G20    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW 12 G22    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           40           50           
PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.17         0.06         0.08         
LAL                   3            3            4            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2800                      4600         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 13                     SW 33        
DISPERSION            17 GEN POOR               96 GOOD      

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW AREAS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 
MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 
MID 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 
30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-220845-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
600 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011 /500 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011/

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      TUE          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      67-72 (+3)   54-59 (0)    70-75        
RH % (24H TREND)      63-68 (-5)   92-97 (-1)   54-59        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   S 10 G22     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW 12 G23    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           50           
PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.04         0.10         
LAL                   3            3            4            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2700                      4700         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 12                     SW 32        
DISPERSION            15 GEN POOR               99 GOOD      

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW AREAS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S. 
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. 
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 
MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. 
SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COOLER. 
LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 
15 MPH. 

$$

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