
522 
FNUS54 KMRX 190920
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
520 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON THURSDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN LEAVING MAX DAYTIME 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. 


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-201030-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
520 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (-17)  36-41 (-18)  46-51        
RH % (24H TREND)      61-66 (+27)  93-98 (+11)  61-66        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE  8 G19                 SW 16 G29    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 11 G21    SW  9        SW 15 G27    
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      FRZ RAIN     
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          60           60           
PRECIP DURATION       5            3            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.40         0.07         0.07         
LAL                   1            1            1            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2300                      4900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 21                      SW 39        
DISPERSION            5 VERY POOR               97 GOOD      

REMARKS...FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET. LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION.  

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-201030-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
520 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      54-59 (-20)  35-40 (-17)  46-51        
RH % (24H TREND)      70-75 (+40)  88-93 (+4)   59-64        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE 10 G24                 W 17 G33     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 10 G20    W 10 G20     W 16 G29     
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      FRZ RAIN     
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          60           60           
PRECIP DURATION       5            3            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.33         0.04         0.06         
LAL                   1            1            1            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2900                      4900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 21                      W 38         
DISPERSION            3 VERY POOR               71 GOOD      

REMARKS...FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET.  LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-201030-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
520 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (-21)  34-39 (-18)  47-52        
RH % (24H TREND)      72-77 (+40)  91-96 (+4)   56-61        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  6 G15                 SW 19 G40    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 11 G23     W 10 G21     W 16 G29     
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SNOW/RAIN    SNOW/FZ RA   
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           70           60           
PRECIP DURATION       5            3            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.31         0.06         0.05         
LAL                   1            1            1            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3500                      5100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 20                     W 38         
DISPERSION            7 POOR                    64 GOOD      

REMARKS...SNOW/FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET. LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO UP TO 10 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S.
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-201030-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
520 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (-23)  36-41 (-16)  50-55        
RH % (24H TREND)      68-73 (+37)  92-97 (+4)   51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  7                      SW 16 G29    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 10 G19     W  7 G15     W 14 G26     
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      FRZ RAIN     
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           30           40           
PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.19         0.04         0.04         
LAL                   1            1            1            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3000                      5000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 16                     W 32         
DISPERSION            12 POOR                   80 GOOD      

REMARKS...FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET.  LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FROST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S. NORTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S.
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-201030-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
520 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (-22)  35-40 (-17)  50-55        
RH % (24H TREND)      67-72 (+36)  90-95 (-5)   50-55        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  7                     W 14 G25     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 10 G18     W  8 G17     W 14 G25     
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      FRZ RAIN     
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           40           40           
PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.20         0.03         0.04         
LAL                   1            1            1            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2900                      5000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 16                     W 31         
DISPERSION            9 POOR                    74 GOOD      
MAX LVORI             7                         4            

REMARKS...FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET.  LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 60S. EAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-201030-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
520 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (-21)  37-42 (-16)  49-54        
RH % (24H TREND)      67-72 (+37)  89-94 (+7)   57-62        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE  6 G16                 SW 18 G32    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 11 G21    SW  9 G16    SW 16 G29    
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      FRZ RAIN     
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           60           50           
PRECIP DURATION       5            3            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.38         0.07         0.05         
LAL                   1            1            1            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2400                      4900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 17                     SW 38        
DISPERSION            14 GEN POOR               113 VERY GOOD

REMARKS...FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET.  LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FROST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-201030-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
520 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (-26)  37-42 (-13)  50-55        
RH % (24H TREND)      70-75 (+37)  92-97 (+9)   53-58        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  6 G15                  SW 16 G30    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 10 G19    SW  9 G17    SW 14 G26    
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      FRZ RAIN     
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           60           40           
PRECIP DURATION       5            2            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.26         0.09         0.03         
LAL                   1            1            1            
LASI                  2                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2600                      4900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 16                     SW 36        
DISPERSION            19 GEN POOR               113 VERY GOOD

REMARKS...FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET. LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FROST. LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LIGHT WINDS. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-201030-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
520 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011 /420 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2011/

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (-29)  37-42 (-11)  52-57        
RH % (24H TREND)      70-75 (+37)  91-96 (+10)  51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  9 G17                  SW 14 G25    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 11 G20     W  8 G17     W 14 G26     
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           30           20           
PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.05         0.02         
LAL                   1            1            1            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2800                      5000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 18                      W 31         
DISPERSION            26 FAIR                   104 VERY GOOD

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FROST. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS NEAR 70.
SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

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