
460 
FNUS54 KMRX 181910
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING 
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME EARLY SHOWERS MAY EFFECT THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES WILL STICK 
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW WRAPS AROUND PROVIDING THE AREA 
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE. AS THE FRONT 
EXITS...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN LEAVING MAX DAYTIME 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. 


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-192015-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      54-59 (+6)   57-62 (-17)  36-41        46-51        
RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (+8)   64-69 (+30)  89-94        57-62        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  8 G19                 SW 13 G25    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7 G16    SW 11 G21    SW  9        SW 13 G25    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           100          70           60           
PRECIP DURATION       1            5            3            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          12 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.32         0.06         0.06         
LAL                   3            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2300                      4800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 17                      SW 40        
DISPERSION                         3 VERY POOR               95 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-192015-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (+5)   54-59 (-20)  35-40        44-49        
RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+13)  67-72 (+37)  85-90        51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE 10 G24                 W 14 G28     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 12 G22    SW 10 G20    W 10 G20     W 15 G28     
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          70           60           
PRECIP DURATION       3            5            3            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.27         0.05         0.05         
LAL                   3            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2900                      4800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 18                     W 39         
DISPERSION                         2 VERY POOR               70 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-192015-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (+5)   52-57 (-21)  34-39        45-50        
RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+15)  65-70 (+33)  89-94        48-53        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6 G15                 SW 14 G30    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G21     W 11 G23     W 10 G21     W 16 G31     
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           70           60           
PRECIP DURATION       4            4            3            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.23         0.23         0.05         0.03         
LAL                   3            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      5000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 16                      W 38         
DISPERSION                         5 VERY POOR               61 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S. NORTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-192015-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (+4)   53-58 (-23)  36-41        50-55        
RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+9)   61-66 (+30)  82-87        44-49        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  7                      SW 13 G26    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  9 G19    W 10 G19     W  7 G15     W 13 G26     
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          70           30           0            
PRECIP DURATION       6            2            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.39         0.13         0.02         0.00         
LAL                   3            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      4900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 16                     W 32         
DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   76 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. NORTH WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-192015-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (+7)   53-58 (-22)  35-40        50-55        
RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (+4)   62-67 (+31)  83-88        42-47        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  7                     W 12 G24     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  9 G17    W 10 G18     W  8 G17     W 13 G25     
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          70           30           0            
PRECIP DURATION       6            2            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.34         0.15         0.02         0.00         
LAL                   3            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2900                      4900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 13                     W 31         
DISPERSION                         7 POOR                    70 GOOD      
MAX LVORI                          6                         3            

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTH
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-192015-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (+4)   56-61 (-21)  37-42        49-54        
RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (+7)   64-69 (+34)  88-93        51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  6 G16                 SW 13 G27    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  6        SW 11 G21    SW  9 G16    SW 14 G28    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           100          60           60           
PRECIP DURATION       2            4            2            2            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.10         0.27         0.05         0.03         
LAL                   3            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2400                      4800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 14                      SW 39        
DISPERSION                         11 POOR                   113 VERY GOOD

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID
60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-192015-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (0)    51-56 (-26)  37-42        51-56        
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+12) 62-67 (+29)  89-94        47-52        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6 G15                  SW 13 G25    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         SW 10 G19    SW  9 G17    SW 13 G26    
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           50           20           
PRECIP DURATION       6            3            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.38         0.19         0.03         0.01         
LAL                   3            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2600                      4800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 17                     W 37         
DISPERSION                         20 GEN POOR               112 VERY GOOD

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. NORTH WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-192015-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011 /210 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011/

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        CLOUDY       PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (-3)   50-55 (-29)  37-42        52-57        
RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+11)  62-67 (+29)  83-88        42-47        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  9 G17                  SW 13 G25    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         W 11 G20     W  8 G17     W 13 G25     
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          60           20           0            
PRECIP DURATION       8            2            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.43         0.08         0.02         0.00         
LAL                   3            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      4900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 20                      W 31         
DISPERSION                         27 FAIR                   101 VERY GOOD

REMARKS...NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE 30S.
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTH
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. NORTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S.
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

