
003 
FNUS54 KMRX 171924
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
324 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS 
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG 
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY 
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD 
FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-182030-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
324 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       
TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+2)   74-79 (0)    50-55        52-57        
RH % (24H TREND)      72-77 (-1)   31-36 (-4)   95-100       60-65        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  5 G15     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  5         SE  5        W  9 G17     
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            80           80           
PRECIP DURATION                                 4            5            
PRECIP BEGIN                                    8 PM         CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.19         0.33         
LAL                   1            1            4            1            
LASI                               4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6600                      3300         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 13                     W  7         
DISPERSION                         53 GEN GOOD               8 POOR       

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PATCHY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-182030-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
324 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       
TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (+3)   74-79 (+1)   49-54        51-56        
RH % (24H TREND)      72-77 (0)    31-36 (-3)   95-100       61-66        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  5 G17    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6         SE  7        W 11 G22     
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            80           80           
PRECIP DURATION                                 4            5            
PRECIP BEGIN                                    8 PM         CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.14         0.25         
LAL                   1            1            4            1            
LASI                               4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7000                      3400         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 13                      W 10         
DISPERSION                         47 GEN GOOD               7 POOR       

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. NORTH WINDS UP
TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID
60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-182030-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
324 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+3)   73-78 (-1)   48-53        49-54        
RH % (24H TREND)      74-79 (-1)   31-36 (-4)   95-100       57-62        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  5                      NW  6        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  7         S  6         W 10 G22     
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           80           80           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            4            4            
PRECIP BEGIN                       2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.01         0.23         0.17         
LAL                   1            2            4            1            
LASI                               4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7200                      3800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 14                      W 14         
DISPERSION                         48 GEN GOOD               8 POOR       

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-182030-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
324 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (+5)   76-81 (0)    51-56        52-57        
RH % (24H TREND)      75-80 (-7)   30-35 (-5)   95-100       55-60        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  5                      NW  7        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6         SE  5        W  9 G20     
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           80           70           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            6            2            
PRECIP BEGIN                       2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.02         0.29         0.09         
LAL                   1            3            5            1            
LASI                               4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7100                      3400         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 14                      NW 17        
DISPERSION                         62 GOOD                   20 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE 30S.
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-182030-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
324 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (+5)   75-80 (-1)   51-56        52-57        
RH % (24H TREND)      80-85 (-6)   30-35 (-4)   95-100       55-60        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  7 G15    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  7         LGT/VAR      NW 10 G19    
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           80           70           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            6            2            
PRECIP BEGIN                       2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.02         0.23         0.10         
LAL                   1            3            5            1            
LASI                               4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7200                      3400         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 14                      NW 17        
DISPERSION                         57 GEN GOOD               17 GEN POOR  
MAX LVORI                          3                         6            

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOWS IN THE 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE 30S.
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-182030-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
324 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       
TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (+3)   76-81 (0)    51-56        53-58        
RH % (24H TREND)      72-77 (-3)   28-33 (-7)   95-100       55-60        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  7 G17     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  9 G18     
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            80           80           
PRECIP DURATION                                 4            4            
PRECIP BEGIN                                    8 PM         CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.19         0.19         
LAL                   1            1            4            1            
LASI                               4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6100                      3300         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     W 15         
DISPERSION                         46 GEN GOOD               23 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE 30S.
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-182030-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
324 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+3)   76-81 (-1)   49-54        50-55        
RH % (24H TREND)      75-80 (+1)   30-35 (-5)   93-98        54-59        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  8 G16    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  5         LGT/VAR      W  9 G17     
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           80           80           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            7            3            
PRECIP BEGIN                       2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.01         0.38         0.14         
LAL                   1            3            5            1            
LASI                               4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6000                      3300         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 15                     NW 20        
DISPERSION                         62 GOOD                   34 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-182030-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
324 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 /224 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011/

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+3)   78-83 (-1)   49-54        51-56        
RH % (24H TREND)      78-83 (+1)   32-37 (-3)   86-91        52-57        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  5                      NW  9 G19    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6         LGT/VAR      W 11 G20     
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           80           60           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            5            2            
PRECIP BEGIN                       2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.03         0.33         0.05         
LAL                   1            3            5            1            
LASI                               4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6400                      3300         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 15                      NW 23        
DISPERSION                         69 GOOD                   42 GEN GOOD  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 40. WEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTH
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

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