
181 
FNUS54 KMRX 151850
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN 
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...UNSEASONABLY COOL 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-161945-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (-7)   57-62 (-2)   40-45        52-57        
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-3)   50-55 (-9)   83-88        52-57        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  7         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  6         NW  5        N  6         NW  6        
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           60           60           70           
PRECIP DURATION       1            3            3            3            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.11         0.11         0.11         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3600                      3600         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 12                     N 14         
DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               19 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 
30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN 
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 
50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 
MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-161945-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      44-49 (-5)   57-62 (-2)   39-44        53-58        
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-6)   50-55 (-9)   83-88        49-54        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  6        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7 G15    NW  6        NW  7        NW  6        
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           60           60           70           
PRECIP DURATION       1            3            3            3            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.08         0.12         0.10         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4100                      4100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 12                     N 12         
DISPERSION                         13 GEN POOR               14 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 
30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN 
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 
50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 
80S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-161945-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (-3)   56-61 (-2)   38-43        54-59        
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-3)   49-54 (-8)   83-88        46-51        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  6         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  5        NW  6        N  8         NW  6        
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           60           60           50           
PRECIP DURATION       1            3            3            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.10         0.08         0.06         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      4500         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 12                     N 13         
DISPERSION                         14 GEN POOR               16 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 
30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN 
THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 50S. 
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. 
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS UP 
TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-161945-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (-4)   58-63 (-2)   40-45        57-62        
RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (-1)   48-53 (-9)   82-87        42-47        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  9 G16     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  5        N  8 G16     N  9 G18     N  9 G16     
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           50           40           30           
PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.10         0.05         0.04         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3600                      4000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 13                     N 18         
DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               32 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 
30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. 
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 
10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 
MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 
80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-161945-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (-4)   57-62 (-2)   40-45        56-61        
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-3)   49-54 (-9)   83-88        44-49        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  5                     N  9         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7        N  9 G17     N  9 G17     NW 10 G18    
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           50           60           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            1            3            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.09         0.06         0.05         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4100                      4000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 13                     N 15         
DISPERSION                         20 GEN POOR               23 FAIR      
MAX LVORI                          4                         3            

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 
30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN 
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 
10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 
50S. HIGHS NEAR 80. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 
80S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS 
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-161945-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (-7)   58-63 (-2)   41-46        55-60        
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-1)   50-55 (-8)   83-88        49-54        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  6        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  6         NW  5        N  6         NW  6        
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           60           60           60           
PRECIP DURATION       1            3            3            3            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.10         0.09         0.08         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3300                      3900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 12                     N 12         
DISPERSION                         18 GEN POOR               24 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 
TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN 
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 
MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 
80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 
10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-161945-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (-6)   58-63 (-2)   41-46        56-61        
RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+4)   49-54 (-11)  84-89        46-51        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  7         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  7        N  7         NW  6        
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           60           50           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            3            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.11         0.04         0.05         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3100                      3800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 12                     N 16         
DISPERSION                         18 GEN POOR               34 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 
40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 50. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 
10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS 
THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 
80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS 
THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-161945-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011 /150 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011/

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (-6)   58-63 (-2)   41-46        58-63        
RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (+2)   48-53 (-9)   80-85        41-46        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  7                     N 11 G20     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  5        N 10 G17     N  9 G17     N 10 G18     
PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           50           30           30           
PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.10         0.03         0.03         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3100                      4200         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 14                     N 22         
DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   57 GEN GOOD  

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 
40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 50. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS 
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 
MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SOUTH 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS 
THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

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