
231 
FNUS54 KMRX 011904
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON 
MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON 
MONDAY...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN 
REGION ON TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE 
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-022000-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (0)    74-79 (+2)   54-59        70-75        
RH % (24H TREND)      80-85 (+10)  41-46 (+2)   87-92        43-48        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  8 G16                  SW  6 G16    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 10 G17     LGT/VAR      SW 10 G20    
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           30           80           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            3            
PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.02         0.07         0.31         
LAL                   1            3            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5500                      5100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 20                     SW 29        
DISPERSION                         58 GEN GOOD               76 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 
IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. 
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 
AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 
15 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-022000-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (-2)   72-77 (+2)   53-58        69-74        
RH % (24H TREND)      81-86 (+7)   42-47 (+2)   91-96        41-46        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G20                  S  6         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G19     S  8 G15     S  5         SW 11 G19    
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           20           70           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            2            
PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        4 AM         CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.02         0.01         0.18         
LAL                   1            2            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5500                      5400         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 17                     SW 24        
DISPERSION                         41 GEN GOOD               56 GEN GOOD  

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S. 
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTHWEST WINDS UP 
TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 
IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 
IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP 
TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-022000-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (-3)   72-77 (+2)   54-59        65-70        
RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (+5)   44-49 (+5)   88-93        52-57        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 12 G25                  SW  9 G20    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G23     S 11 G20     S  6 G15     W 12 G23     
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           30           70           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            2            
PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        12 AM        CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.02         0.02         0.38         
LAL                   1            2            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      5700         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 21                     SW 30        
DISPERSION                         43 GEN GOOD               69 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO 
UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 
NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. 
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 
15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S 
TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 
UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-022000-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      54-59 (-4)   75-80 (+2)   54-59        69-74        
RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (+3)   43-48 (+6)   93-98        46-51        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G22                  SW  9 G20    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  9 G20     S 11 G19     S  5         W 10 G22     
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           30           70           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            2            
PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.02         0.03         0.46         
LAL                   1            2            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5500                      5300         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 22                      SW 28        
DISPERSION                         65 GOOD                   77 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTH 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTH 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 
NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. 
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-022000-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (0)    75-80 (+2)   54-59        69-74        
RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (-5)   43-48 (+3)   91-96        49-54        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G17                  SW  8 G17    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G17     S 10 G17     S  7         W 10 G20     
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           30           70           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            2            
PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.02         0.02         0.37         
LAL                   1            2            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      5600         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 20                      SW 25        
DISPERSION                         60 GEN GOOD               74 GOOD      
MAX LVORI                          4                         4            

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 
MID 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. 
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 
NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 
60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-022000-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      54-59 (-1)   75-80 (+2)   55-60        71-76        
RH % (24H TREND)      83-88 (+7)   40-45 (+1)   85-90        42-47        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  7                      SW  6 G16    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  8         LGT/VAR      SW 10 G19    
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           20           70           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            2            
PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        12 AM        CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.02         0.03         0.32         
LAL                   1            3            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4700                      5000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 18                     SW 26        
DISPERSION                         50 GEN GOOD               81 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. 
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS 
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 
MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 
IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 
5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-022000-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2011

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       
TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (-1)   75-80 (+2)   55-60        65-70        
RH % (24H TREND)      82-87 (+5)   45-50 (+5)   88-93        49-54        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G21                  SW  7 G19    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         S 10 G19     LGT/VAR      W  9 G19     
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           30           80           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            2            4            
PRECIP BEGIN                       8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.03         0.17         0.59         
LAL                   1            3            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      5000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     SW 29        
DISPERSION                         59 GEN GOOD               93 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 40S. 
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTH 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS LESS 
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. 
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 
IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-022000-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2011 /205 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011/

                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (0)    77-82 (+2)   56-61        65-70        
RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (+8)   44-49 (+5)   90-95        45-50        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G20                  SW  6 G15    
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G16     S 10 G19     LGT/VAR      W  9         
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           50           80           
PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            4            
PRECIP BEGIN                       8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.03         0.14         0.62         
LAL                   1            3            2            2            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      5000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 22                     SW 28        
DISPERSION                         60 GEN GOOD               90 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. 
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 
MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. 
NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. 
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. 
SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

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