
016 
FNUS54 KMRX 172001
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST 
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN OVER THE 
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS RAIN MAY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN 
AND SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEHIND THE PASSAGE 
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY 
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A 
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-182030-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
300 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      31-36 (+5)   41-46 (0)    28-33        35-40        
RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (-5)   73-78 (+11)  88-93        55-60        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  6         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5        SW  5        LGT/VAR      W  6         
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/FZ RA   SNOW/FZ RA   
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           70           80           30           
PRECIP DURATION       1            2            3            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.10         0.08         0.02         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2500                      3500         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     NW 17        
DISPERSION                         5 VERY POOR               21 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. WEST WINDS LESS 
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S 
TO MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 20S. 
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. HIGHS IN 
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 
MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S 
TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-182030-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
300 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      30-35 (+3)   41-46 (+3)   28-33        35-40        
RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+8)   68-73 (+2)   87-92        56-61        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  9 G18     
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  7 G16     
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/FZ RA   SNOW/FZ RA   
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           70           80           30           
PRECIP DURATION       1            2            3            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.11         0.06         0.01         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      3600         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      NW 21        
DISPERSION                         2 VERY POOR               13 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTH 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 
20S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. HIGHS IN 
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE 30S. WEST 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S 
TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-182030-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
300 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      30-35 (+2)   41-46 (+1)   27-32        36-41        
RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+12)  68-73 (+12)  89-94        53-58        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/FZ RA   SNOW/FZ RA   
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           80           60           20           
PRECIP DURATION       1            4            2            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.20         0.05         0.01         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3300                      3800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     NW 14        
DISPERSION                         2 VERY POOR               8 POOR       

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS LESS 
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S 
TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 
20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. HIGHS IN 
THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE TEENS. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S 
TO UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO 
LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO 
LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-182030-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
300 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      30-35 (+4)   41-46 (-4)   29-34        40-45        
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+9)  75-80 (+12)  92-97        51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  5        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/FZ RA   FRZ RAIN     
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           80           50           0            
PRECIP DURATION       1            5            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.25         0.04         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2500                      3500         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     NW 14        
DISPERSION                         4 VERY POOR               17 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO 
LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN 
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 20S. WEST WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. HIGHS IN 
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 
30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S 
TO MID 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-182030-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
300 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      30-35 (+5)   41-46 (-6)   28-33        40-45        
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  77-82 (+13)  92-97        51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  6        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  6        
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/FZ RA   NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           80           50           0            
PRECIP DURATION       1            5            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.25         0.04         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2700                      3500         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     NW 17        
DISPERSION                         4 VERY POOR               19 GEN POOR  
MAX LVORI                          8                         4            

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO 
LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN 
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 20S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. HIGHS IN 
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S. 
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S 
TO LOWER 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-182030-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
300 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      30-35 (+5)   43-48 (+1)   29-34        38-43        
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-5)   69-74 (+7)   88-93        54-59        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  6         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  6         
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/FZ RA   SNOW/FZ RA   
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           80           80           30           
PRECIP DURATION       1            4            3            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.12         0.07         0.02         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2200                      3200         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     W 15         
DISPERSION                         7 POOR                    22 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. HIGHS IN 
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE 30S. WEST 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S 
TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S 
TO LOWER 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-182030-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
300 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      31-36 (+3)   42-47 (-1)   29-34        39-44        
RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (+3)   70-75 (+8)   90-95        51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/FZ RA   SNOW/FZ RA   
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           80           60           20           
PRECIP DURATION       1            6            2            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.22         0.04         0.01         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 1900                      3100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 14                     NW 13        
DISPERSION                         7 POOR                    20 GEN POOR  

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. EAST WINDS LESS 
THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. HIGHS IN 
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 
30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S 
TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
30S TO MID 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-182030-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
300 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 /200 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011/

                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      32-37 (+3)   43-48 (0)    29-34        41-46        
RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+7)   71-76 (+8)   90-95        50-55        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  5        
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SNOW/FZ RA   NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           90           40           0            
PRECIP DURATION       1            7            1                         
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.26         0.03         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
LASI                               2                         4            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 1800                      3100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 14                     NW 13        
DISPERSION                         7 POOR                    21 FAIR      

REMARKS...NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. EAST WINDS 
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 50. SOUTH 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 
30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS NEAR 40. NORTH 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 
TO MID 40S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

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